Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 16 - Round 31

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday


	Villegas		San Marcial

	1	X	2
	2.18	3.25	2.88
	1.98	3.44	3.37
	2.31	3.37	2.8	Watch
	2	3.2	3.3
	1.99	3.3	3.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.39)	3.31 ↑ (3.17)	3.15 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villegas
43.6%

Draw
27.5%

San Marcial
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

28.6%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

29.8%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villegas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Villegas's performance.

San Marcial has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villegas than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Marcial than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Villegas - San Marcial Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, ⚽,
42', 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
66', 1 - 1, ⚽,
78', 1 - 2, ⚽,
90+5', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 12).

Villegas is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

San Marcial's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Villegas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	San Marcial	5	1	3	1	4:4	0	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Villegas
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
12.04.26	La Calzada - Villegas	3:2 ✺
01.04.26	Villegas - Varea	0:1 ✺
29.03.26	Peña Balsamaiso - Villegas	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Villegas - Autol	4:0 ✺
15.03.26	Berceo - Villegas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLTWL
- ACD San Marcial
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
12.04.26	San Marcial - Calahorra	0:4 ✺
02.04.26	Comillas - San Marcial	0:1 ✺
29.03.26	San Marcial - Vianés	2:2 ✺
21.03.26	Arnedo - San Marcial	7:1 ✺
14.03.26	San Marcial - Yagüe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
13.12.25	San Marcial - Villegas	0:1

Villegas - San Marcial: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide