Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 4

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Tonino Benelli (Pesaro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Max


	Vis Pesaro		Livorno

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	2.95	3.2
	2.28	2.98	3.15
	2.4	2.91	3.14
	1.00	14.00	25.00	Watch
	2.27	2.96	3.12	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.38)	5.16 ↑ (3.05)	7.52 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vis Pesaro
60.4%

Draw
23.5%

Livorno
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

30.3%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

30%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vis Pesaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vis Pesaro's performance.

Livorno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Livorno might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vis Pesaro than the current prediction. (-21.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vis Pesaro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Livorno than the current prediction. (+14.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Livorno could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Vis Pesaro - Livorno Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pozzi A. (G) 30. Beghetto A. 6. Di Renzo G. 15. Ceccacci M. 71. Tavernaro F. 17. Paganini L. 7. Pucciarelli M. 21. Vezzoni F. 20. Giovannini R. 9. Nicastro F. 11. Stabile D. P.	12. Seghetti J. (G) 49. Baldi L. 26. Noce M. 15. Ghezzi S. 14. Biondi K. 8. Welbeck N. 28. Hamlili Z. 4. Odjer M. 19. Antoni E. 95. Marchesi F. 13. Di Carmine S.
Substitutes
77. Ascione S. 24. Berengo N. 33. Bocs R. 10. Di Paola M. 19. Ferrari T. 23. Forte M. 72. Franchetti Rosada L. 22. Fratti D. (G) 16. Guarnone A. (G) 55. Mariani E. 8. Nina C. 13. Primasso A. 5. Tonucci D. 99. Ventre A.	16. Calvosa A. 22. Ciobanu N. D. (G) 70. Cioffi A. 9. Dionisi F. 2. Gentile D. 20. Haveri K. 11. Malva A. 23. Marinari J. 77. Mawete J. C. 5. Nwachukwu S. J. 17. Panaioli L. 18. Panattoni M. 55. Peralta D. 1. Tani F. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Stabile D. P. ⚽,
8', Noce M. 🟥,
26', Antoni E. 🟨,
31', 2 - 0, Paganini L. ⚽,
39', Di Renzo G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Di Renzo G. ↓, Tonucci D. ↑,
52', Giovannini R. 🟨,
57', Odjer M. ↓, Cioffi A. ↑,
57', Hamlili Z. ↓, Panaioli L. ↑,
58', Biondi K. ↓, Mawete J. C. ↑,
61', 🟨,
61', Mawete J. C. 🟨,
62', Giovannini R. ↓, Di Paola M. ↑,
62', Stabile D. P. ↓, Mariani E. ↑,
73', Ceccacci M. 🟨,
76', Di Carmine S. ↓, Dionisi F. ↑,
78', Beghetto A. ↓, Primasso A. ↑,
84', Welbeck N. ↓, Panattoni M. ↑,
86', Tavernaro F. ↓, Nina C. ↑,
87', 3 - 0, Vezzoni F. ⚽,

Preview

Vis Pesaro is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Livorno's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Livorno may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Vis Pesaro has had a series of away games.

Vis Pesaro is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSD Vis Pesaro 1898
Italian Serie C Group B
06.09.25	Arezzo - Vis Pesaro	1:0 ✺
29.08.25	Vis Pesaro - Rimini	0:0 ✺
22.08.25	Pineto - Vis Pesaro	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
16.08.25	Sambenedettese - Vis Pesaro	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Spezia - Vis Pesaro	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LTTL?
- US Livorno 1915
Italian Serie C Group B
07.09.25	Livorno - Guidonia Montecelio	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Juventus U23 - Livorno	2:1 ✺
22.08.25	Livorno - Ternana	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
16.08.25	Sassari Torres - Livorno	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Livorno - Seravezza Pozzi	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLWLW

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