Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 4

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Calcio
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Spezia		Livorno

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.60	3.50	4.80
	1.64	3.45	4.35	Watch
	1.66	3.62	5.80
	1.63	3.52	5.32	Watch
	1.60	3.55	5.70
	1.62	3.54	5.98	Watch
	1.59	3.50	5.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.82)	3.53 ↑ (3.2)	5.31 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
56.7%

Draw
26%

Livorno
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

28.3%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

26.9%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Spezia's performance.

Livorno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Livorno than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Spezia - Livorno Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Micai A. (G) 31. Oyono J. 13. Sapola M. 6. Sganzerla R. 72. Capolupo S. 70. Bright K. 14. Capomaggio G. 24. Limonelli C. 97. Cazzadori D. 9. Mazzocchi S. (C) 11. Cardinali A.	91. Martinez M. (G) 19. Regazzetti S. 4. Bachini M. 34. Veseli F. 54. Falasco N. 5. Bacciardi A. 17. Arrigoni T. (C) 21. Malotti M. 8. Peralta D. 77. Mawete J. C. 13. Di Carmine S.
Substitutes
12. Altemura T. (G) 20. Bastoni S. 44. Benvenuto M. 34. Cannavo K. 22. Ciocci G. (G) 7. Di Serio G. 77. Durmush M. 90. Fontanarosa R. 65. Giorgeschi S. 10. Jimenez K. 5. Joselito 37. Mateju A. 55. Spedalieri J. 28. Zilli M.	7. Aramu M. 24. Badoro C. 44. Bonassi L. 22. Ciobanu D. (G) 6. Djidji K. 9. Gabbiani G. 2. Gentile D. 90. Lucca G. 11. Malagrida L. 14. Mancini T. 23. Marinari J. 3. Menarini F. 18. Morachioli G. 53. Pittino T. 28. Rizza A.
Coaches
Turati M.	Lucarelli D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Sapola M. 🟨,
45+2', Arrigoni T. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', 1 - 0, Mazzocchi S. ⚽, Cardinali A. (A),
52', Peralta D. 🟨,
56', 2 - 0, Capomaggio G. ⚽,
63', Bacciardi A. 🟨,
71', Arrigoni T. ↓, Menarini F. ↑,
71', Bacciardi A. ↓, Bonassi L. ↑,
71', Peralta D. ↓, Mancini T. ↑,
76', Mawete J. C. ↓, Morachioli G. ↑,
78', Cazzadori D. ↓, Durmush M. ↑,
78', Sapola M. ↓, Spedalieri J. ↑,
78', Mazzocchi S. ↓, Zilli M. ↑,
82', Malotti M. ↓, Badoro C. ↑,
82', Oyono J. ↓, Mateju A. ↑,
89', Limonelli C. ↓, Jimenez K. ↑,
90+6', Spedalieri J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 5.

In recent matches, both teams have secured multiple victories.

In this match, Spezia is the team to beat.

We predict that Spezia will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 24:5. (average 2.4:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Spezia won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:2. (average 2.4:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Spezia	9	8	1	0	17:4	13	25
5	Livorno	8	4	2	2	10:9	1	14

Last Results with these Odds

Spezia - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 49.69%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
06.09.26	Sambenedettese - Spezia	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
02.09.26	Spezia - Vado	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
29.08.26	Spezia - Campobasso	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
16.08.26	Spezia - Sassari Torres	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Empoli - Spezia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWWT
- US Livorno 1915
Italian Serie C Group B
06.09.26	Livorno - Atalanta U23	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
03.09.26	Novara - Livorno	0:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
29.08.26	Pineto - Livorno	0:0 ✺
24.08.26	Livorno - Sassari Torres	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
15.08.26	Livorno - Reggiana	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
13.07.20	Livorno - Spezia	0:1
07.12.19	Spezia - Livorno	2:0
27.02.19	Spezia - Livorno	3:0
07.10.18	Livorno - Spezia	1:3
14.02.16	Spezia - Livorno	3:0
26.09.15	Livorno - Spezia	1:2
13.03.15	Spezia - Livorno	3:0

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