Match Info

Capixaba - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Salvador Venâncio da Costa (Vitoria)


	Vitória ES		Forte Rio Bananal

	1	X	2
	1.35	4.05	8.1
	1.31	4.77	8.39	Watch
	1.33	3.9	9.5
	1.4	4.31	8.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.38)	4.26 ↑ (4.04)	8.52 ↑ (8.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória ES
67.8%

Draw
21.5%

Forte Rio Bananal
10.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.2%

22.5%

11.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.4%

21.5%

10.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória ES has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Forte Rio Bananal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória ES than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forte Rio Bananal than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Vitória ES - Forte Rio Bananal Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Paulo Henrique (G) 22. Abuda (C) 10. Carlos Vitor 2. Foguete 3. Guilherme Truyts 20. Gustavo Tonoli 8. Joao Paulo 15. Jonata 6. Thiago Magatao 7. Thiago Ramos 11. Vini	1. Barto (G) 2. Allanzinho 8. Darlan 6. Edimar (C) 5. Gabriel Mistura 20. Lucas Dede 10. Marcelinho Araxa 11. Matheus Arcado 4. Nicolas 9. Rael 7. Riquelme
Substitutes
17. Alexsandro 23. Caio Ferraz 18. Canario 25. Cezini 16. Geisandro 5. Gualberto 21. Junior Vernier (G) 24. Kaiky 27. Mailson 13. Marcelinho 4. Roberto Junior 19. Tony	3. Breno Mariano 14. Bruno Alecrim 19. Costa R. 23. da Silva B. 12. Felipe (G) 16. Goncalves I. 15. Iago Nogueira 17. Kauhan 18. Marcos Vinicius 13. Pietro Micenio 22. Saimon 25. Victor Biancardi (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Joao Paulo ⚽,
10', 2 - 0, Gustavo Tonoli (Penalty Awarded),
15', 3 - 0, Vini ⚽,
28', 4 - 0, Joao Paulo ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Matheus Arcado ↓, Bruno Alecrim ↑,
46', Marcelinho Araxa ↓, da Silva B. ↑,
58', Allanzinho 🟨,
60', Vini ↓, Alexsandro ↑,
60', Thiago Ramos ↓, Canario ↑,
60', Foguete ↓, Caio Ferraz ↑,
60', Abuda ↓, Mailson ↑,
71', 4 - 1, Breno Mariano ⚽,
73', Gustavo Tonoli ↓, Tony ↑,
82', Rael (Penalty Awarded),
87', Allanzinho ↓, Iago Nogueira ↑,
90+1', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-1. Second leg.

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Vitória ES is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Forte's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Vitória ES is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Vitória ES will win today's game, with odds of 1.37.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Vitória ES won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitória ES
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
23.02.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Vitória ES	1:1 ✺
12.02.26	Serra - Vitória ES	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Vitória ES - Rio Branco-VN	3:0 ✺
04.02.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Vitória ES	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Vitória ES - Capixaba SC	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWWTW
- Forte Rio Bananal
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
23.02.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Vitória ES	1:1 ✺
12.02.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Desportiva Ferroviaria	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	Rio Branco AC ES - Forte Rio Bananal	0:0 ✺
04.02.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Vitória ES	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Vilavelhense - Forte Rio Bananal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 TLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
23.02.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Vitória ES	1:1
04.02.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Vitória ES	0:0

Vitória ES - Forte Rio Bananal: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide