Match Info

Capixaba - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 February 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Municipal Almiro Ofranti (Vargem Alta)


	Forte Rio Bananal		Vitória ES

	1	X	2
	4.55	3.25	1.72
	4.65	3.38	1.72	Watch
	4.8	3.1	1.73
	4.95	3.3	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.74 ↑ (4)	3.26 ↑ (3.25)	1.71 ↓ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Forte Rio Bananal
19.2%

Draw
27.9%

Vitória ES
53%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.8%

28%

49.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.4%

27.5%

50.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Forte Rio Bananal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Vitória ES has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forte Rio Bananal than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória ES than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Forte Rio Bananal - Vitória ES Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Forte (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Forte (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Barto (G) 2. Allanzinho 8. Darlan 6. Edimar (C) 5. Gabriel Mistura 20. Lucas Dede 10. Marcelinho Araxa 14. Matheus Arcado 4. Nicolas 9. Rael 7. Riquelme	12. Paulo Henrique (G) 22. Abuda 10. Carlos Vitor 2. Foguete 3. Guilherme Truyts 20. Gustavo Tonoli 8. Joao Paulo 15. Jonata 6. Thiago Magatao 7. Thiago Ramos 11. Vini
Substitutes
3. Breno Mariano 17. da Silva B. 12. Felipe (G) 18. Goncalves I. 21. Iago Nogueira 13. Kauhan 22. Marcos Vinicius 15. Pietro Micenio 16. Ryan Daudt 19. Saimon 11. Valdeir 25. Victor Biancardi (G)	17. Alexsandro 23. Caio Ferraz 18. Canario 25. Cezini 16. Geisandro 5. Gualberto 21. Junior Vernier (G) 24. Kaiky 1. Lucao (G) 27. Mailson 13. Marcelinho 14. Stuart

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Nicolas 🟨,
15', Gabriel Mistura 🟨,
37', Thiago Ramos 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Nicolas ↓, Breno Mariano ↑,
51', Lucas Dede 🟨,
51', 🟨,
66', Marcelinho Araxa ↓, Iago Nogueira ↑,
74', Thiago Ramos ↓, Gualberto ↑,
74', Vini ↓, Alexsandro ↑,
75', 1 - 0, Matheus Arcado ⚽,
84', 1 - 1, Carlos Vitor ⚽,
85', Thiago Magatao ↓, Geisandro ↑,
85', Joao Paulo ↓, Cezini ↑,
87', Matheus Arcado ↓, da Silva B. ↑,
87', Rael ↓, Goncalves I. ↑,
90+1', Gabriel Mistura ↓, Pietro Micenio ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In recent matches, Forte has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vitória ES is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Vitória ES is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Forte won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Including home match between the teams, Forte won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Forte Rio Bananal
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
12.02.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Desportiva Ferroviaria	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	Rio Branco AC ES - Forte Rio Bananal	0:0 ✺
04.02.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Vitória ES	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Vilavelhense - Forte Rio Bananal	1:1 ✺
28.01.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Serra	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 LTTTW
- Vitória ES
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
12.02.26	Serra - Vitória ES	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Vitória ES - Rio Branco-VN	3:0 ✺
04.02.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Vitória ES	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Vitória ES - Capixaba SC	2:0 ✺
29.01.26	Noroeste - Vitória ES	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
04.02.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Vitória ES	0:0

Forte Rio Bananal - Vitória ES: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide