Match Info

Capixaba - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Salvador Venâncio da Costa (Vitoria)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Vitória ES		Porto Vitória

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.25	4.45
	1.72	3.32	4.73	Watch
	1.73	3.1	4.75
	1.93	3.37	3.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.77)	3.26 ↓ (3.3)	4.47 ↑ (4.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória ES
51.5%

Draw
28%

Porto Vitória
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

27.7%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

26.1%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória ES has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Porto Vitória has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória ES than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto Vitória than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Vitória ES - Porto Vitória Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Paulo Henrique (G) 22. Abuda 10. Carlos Vitor 2. Foguete 5. Gualberto 3. Guilherme Truyts 20. Gustavo Tonoli 8. Joao Paulo 6. Thiago Magatao 7. Thiago Ramos 11. Vini	1. Rafael Mariano (G) 5. Athirson 8. Henrique Melo 10. Matheus Firmino 4. Matheus Guedes 9. Pedro Felipe 3. Renie (C) 7. Rian Felipe 2. Taleco 6. Thallyson 11. Victor Rangel
Substitutes
17. Alexsandro 23. Caio Ferraz 18. Canario 25. Cezini 16. Geisandro 24. Kaiky 1. Lucao (G) 27. Mailson 13. Marcelinho 9. Patrick 4. Roberto Junior 19. Tony	19. Adriano Bispo 23. Aydhan Martins (G) 16. Cardoso K. 14. Ferrugem 18. Gama 13. Joao Victor 17. Josue 12. Leo Rodrigues (G) 21. Luiz Henrique 15. Matheus Santos 20. Miguel 22. Vini Moura

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
2', 0 - 1, Rian Felipe ⚽,
15', Abuda 🟨,
26', Joao Paulo 🟨,
32', Henrique Melo 🟨,
45', 0 - 2, Matheus Firmino ⚽,
45+7', 0 - 3, Gustavo Tonoli (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Vini ↓, Tony ↑,
46', Renie 🟨,
56', 🟨,
57', 1 - 3, Guilherme Truyts ⚽,
66', Pedro Felipe ↓, Adriano Bispo ↑,
66', Rian Felipe ↓, Luiz Henrique ↑,
68', 1 - 4, Thallyson ⚽,
70', Athirson ↓, Matheus Santos ↑,
79', Gualberto ↓, Geisandro ↑,
83', 1 - 5, Adriano Bispo ⚽,
83', Carlos Vitor ↓, Canario ↑,
83', Tony 🟨,
84', Henrique Melo ↓, Vini Moura ↑,
85', Matheus Firmino ↓, Josue ↑,
87', Gustavo Tonoli ↓, Alexsandro ↑,
90+2', 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 5)
1, (Penalty Awarded),
1, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
5, (Penalty Awarded),
5, (Penalty Awarded),
6, (Penalty Awarded),
6, (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 4-0. Second leg.

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vitória ES won 2.

Vitória ES is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Porto Vitória has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Vitória ES may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Vitória ES is a strong favorite.

We predict that Vitória ES will win today's game, with odds of 1.74.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Vitória ES won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:16. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Vitória ES won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitória ES
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
08.03.26	Porto Vitória - Vitória ES	0:4 ✺
01.03.26	Vitória ES - Forte Rio Bananal	4:1 ✺
23.02.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Vitória ES	1:1 ✺
12.02.26	Serra - Vitória ES	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Vitória ES - Rio Branco-VN	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWTWW
- Porto Vitória
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
08.03.26	Porto Vitória - Vitória ES	0:4 ✺
Copa do Brasil
04.03.26	Avaí - Porto Vitória	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
28.02.26	Rio Branco AC ES - Porto Vitória	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Porto Vitória - Rio Branco AC ES	1:1 ✺
12.02.26	Porto Vitória - Vilavelhense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
08.03.26	Porto Vitória - Vitória ES	0:4
17.01.26	Vitória ES - Porto Vitória	1:1
Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
03.08.25	Vitória ES - Porto Vitória	3:1
21.06.25	Porto Vitória - Vitória ES	2:1
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
23.03.25	Vitória ES - Porto Vitória	0:2
17.03.25	Porto Vitória - Vitória ES	0:1
25.01.25	Vitória ES - Porto Vitória	1:1

Vitória ES - Porto Vitória: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide