Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 21

Date: 3 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Barradao (Salvador)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
Peru	L1 Play
World	Amazon Prime Video, Fanatiz


	Vitória Salvador		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.9	2.9	Watch
	2.75	2.95	2.9
	2.7	2.95	2.85
	2.8	2.99	2.94
	2.74	2.97	2.87	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.2
	2.71	3.02	2.82	Watch
	2.7	2.95	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↓ (3.6)	2.98 ↓ (3.42)	2.92 ↑ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória Salvador
35.5%

Draw
31.9%

Cuiabá
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.9%

27.3%

46.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

26.5%

45.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vitória Salvador's performance.

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cuiabá might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vitória Salvador that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+12.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cuiabá could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Vitória Salvador - Cuiabá Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Vitória will win (votes: 8 - 50%). Cuiabá will win (votes: 4 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vitória: 25.5% – 74.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 27. Caceres R. 77. Neris 4. Wagner Leonardo 14. Patric Calmon 8. Luan Silva 28. Ricardo 29. Willian Oliveira 30. Matheuzinho 39. Janderson 11. Osvaldo	1. Walter (G) 2. Matheus Alexandre 4. Marllon 33. Alan Empereur 23. Ramon 30. Lucas Mineiro 27. Denilson Alves 10. Max Alves 9. Pitta I. 97. Andre Luis 25. Clayson
Substitutes
9. Alerrandro 96. Carlos Eduardo 43. Edu 83. Fabio Soares 36. Filipe Machado 10. Jean Mota 33. Lawan 5. Leo Naldi 22. Muriel Becker (G) 62. Pablo 44. Roque Junior 17. Ze Hugo	34. Bruno Alves 22. Derik Lacerda 11. Eliel 88. Fernando Sobral 5. Filipe Augusto 44. Gabriel 7. Jonathan Cafu 63. Juan Tavares 18. Lucas Fernandes 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 21. Railan 12. Rhyan (G)
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Petit

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Janderson 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Luan Silva 🟨,
61', Janderson ↓, Alerrandro ↑,
62', Luan Silva ↓, Filipe Machado ↑,
62', Ricardo ↓, Ze Hugo ↑,
62', Denilson Alves ↓, Filipe Augusto ↑,
62', Clayson ↓, Derik Lacerda ↑,
66', Ramon 🟨,
71', 1 - 0, Wagner Leonardo ⚽, Alerrandro (A),
73', Derik Lacerda 🟨,
76', Andre Luis ↓, Jonathan Cafu ↑,
76', Max Alves ↓, Lucas Fernandes ↑,
80', Filipe Augusto 🟨,
81', Osvaldo ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
82', Caceres R. ↓, Edu ↑,
86', Lucas Mineiro ↓, Eliel ↑,
90+2', Matheuzinho 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Vitória: Breno J. (Red Card) Camutanga (Injury) Rodrigo Andrade (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vitória won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Vitória won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
27.07.24	Palmeiras - Vitória Salvador	0:2 ✺
24.07.24	Vitória Salvador - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
21.07.24	Grêmio - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
17.07.24	Fortaleza - Vitória Salvador	3:1 ✺
11.07.24	Vitória Salvador - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WLLLL
- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie A
28.07.24	Cuiabá - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.07.24	Cuiabá - Palestino	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
21.07.24	Cuiabá - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
18.07.24	Palestino - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.07.24	Bahia - Cuiabá	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.06.24	Cuiabá - Vitória Salvador	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
08.12.20	Cuiabá - Vitória Salvador	3:3
05.09.20	Vitória Salvador - Cuiabá	4:2
11.10.19	Cuiabá - Vitória Salvador	1:3
09.07.19	Vitória Salvador - Cuiabá	0:1

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