Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Play Offs - Final

Date: 2 June 2026, Tuesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Filho A. (Bra)


	Fortaleza		Vitória Salvador

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.3	Watch
	2.42	3.15	2.58	Watch
	2.54	3.1	2.79
	2.21	3.18	3.25	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.75
	2.47	3.1	2.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.28)	3.07 ↓ (3.09)	2.92 (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
38.6%

Draw
29.9%

Vitória Salvador
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

29.3%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

29.8%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Fortaleza - Vitória Salvador Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Vitória will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (G) 2. Britez E. (C) 4. Luan Freitas 3. Lucas Gazal 75. Rodriguinho 29. Rodrigo 88. Lucas Sasha 7. Pochettino T. 13. Mauricio Junior 11. Vitinho 32. Luiz Fernando	1. Lucas Arcanjo (C) 26. Edenilson 25. Caca 36. Luan Candido 13. Ramon 95. Caique Goncalves 88. Ze Vitor 6. Emmanuel Martinez 33. Erick 91. Rene 10. Matheuzinho
Substitutes
18. Fuentes G. 99. Kayke 10. Lucas Crispim 19. Lucas Emanoel 38. Lucca Prior 22. Mailton 77. Paulo Baya 5. Pierre 8. Ronald 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton	23. Fabricio 35. Fintelman (G) 22. Gabriel (G) 83. Jamerson 20. Lucas Silva 7. Marinho 77. Neris 11. Osvaldo 79. Renato Kayzer 8. Ronald Lopes 12. Tarzia D. 55. Ze Breno
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Jair Ventura

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Emmanuel Martinez 🟨,
27', Britez E. 🟨,
37', Luan Freitas ↓, Ronald ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Caique Goncalves ↓, Jamerson ↑,
55', 1 - 0, Vitinho ⚽,
63', Ronald 🟥,
67', Edenilson ↓, Renato Kayzer ↑,
69', Pochettino T. ↓, Ryan ↑,
69', Vitinho ↓, Fuentes G. ↑,
70', Caca 🟨,
83', Lucas Sasha 🟨,
84', Ryan 🟨,
84', 1 - 1, Renato Kayzer (Penalty Awarded),
85', Ramon ↓, Ronald Lopes ↑,
85', Emmanuel Martinez ↓, Tarzia D. ↑,
89', Luiz Fernando ↓, Kayke ↑,
89', Mauricio Junior ↓, Lucas Crispim ↑,
90+3', 1 - 2, Tarzia D. ⚽,
90+5', Tarzia D. 🟨,
90+5', Rodrigo 🟨,
90+5', Erick ↓, Marinho ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Fortaleza could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:4. (average 2:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Vitória Salvador - the odds 2.92 are the expected chance of winning is 31%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
30.05.26	Athletic Club - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
27.05.26	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
23.05.26	Fortaleza - Londrina	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.05.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWWLL
- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
30.05.26	Santos - Vitória Salvador	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
27.05.26	ABC - Vitória Salvador	3:4 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
23.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Internacional RS	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.05.26	Vitória Salvador - ABC	6:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
13.09.25	Fortaleza - Vitória Salvador	2:0
16.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Fortaleza	2:1
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.02.25	Fortaleza - Vitória Salvador	1:2
Brazilian Serie A
01.12.24	Vitória Salvador - Fortaleza	2:0
17.07.24	Fortaleza - Vitória Salvador	3:1
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
23.03.24	Fortaleza - Vitória Salvador	0:1
Copa do Brasil
12.05.22	Vitória Salvador - Fortaleza	0:1

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