Match Info

Serie B - Round 3

Date: 15 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Disney+


	Cuiabá		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.1	2.6	Watch
	2.55	3	2.7
	2.8	3	2.6
	2.92	3.06	2.71
	2.87	2.91	2.68	Watch
	2.7	3	2.75
	2.85	3.02	2.62	Watch
	2.8	3	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.44)	3.01 ↓ (3.13)	2.66 ↓ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
33.5%

Draw
31.2%

Athletico Paranaense
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

29.7%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

29.8%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	66.7%	16.7%

Cuiabá - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Cuiabá will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Athletico PR will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Cuiabá (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 98. Matheusinho 4. Nathan 33. Alan Empereur (C) 6. Sander 30. Lucas Mineiro 27. Denilson 8. Max 99. Lucas Cardoso 22. Derik Lacerda 7. Pedrinho	1. Mycael (G) 18. Palacios H. 28. Habraao 3. Leo 6. Fernando 31. Raul 5. Felipinho 10. Zapelli B. 7. Velasco K. 27. Alan Kardec (C) 19. Luiz Fernando
Substitutes
97. Andre Luis 1. Arthur (G) 3. Bruno Alves 55. Calebe Costa 9. Edu 13. Guilherme Mariano 77. Jadson 70. Juan Christian 2. Leonardo Ataide 10. Ruan Oliveira	65. Arthur Dias 2. Dudu 37. Esquivel L. 98. Falcao 4. Figueiredo T. 8. Giuliano 11. Isaac 57. Joao Cruz 88. Patrick 70. Renan 23. Santos (G) 30. Tevis
Coaches
Guto Ferreira	Mauricio Barbieri

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Leo ⚽, Fernando (A),
45+1', Mycael 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Zapelli B. ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
50', Nathan 🟨,
55', Lucas Cardoso ↓, Edu ↑,
60', 1 - 1, Lucas Mineiro ⚽, Sander (A),
62', Lucas Mineiro 🟨,
64', Luiz Fernando ↓, Isaac ↑,
64', Fernando ↓, Esquivel L. ↑,
64', Nathan ↓, Bruno Alves ↑,
70', Alan Kardec ↓, Renan ↑,
71', Renan 🟨,
72', 2 - 1, Pedrinho ⚽,
78', Lucas Mineiro ↓, Calebe Costa ↑,
78', Derik Lacerda ↓, Jadson ↑,
78', Matheusinho ↓, Leonardo Ataide ↑,
78', Velasco K. ↓, Giuliano ↑,
90+7', Denilson 🟨,
90+8', Max 🟥,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 1.

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 7:12 (average 0.9:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Cuiabá won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5:3 (average 1.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie B
10.04.25	Cuiabá - Avaí	2:2 ✺
06.04.25	Volta Redonda - Cuiabá	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
29.03.25	Cuiabá - Primavera AC	0:2 penalties ✺
22.03.25	Primavera AC - Cuiabá	1:2 ✺
15.03.25	Cuiabá - Operário Ltda	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWLWW
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie B
10.04.25	Athletico Paranaense - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
04.04.25	Paysandu - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
19.03.25	Athletico Paranaense - Maringá	0:3 ✺
16.03.25	Maringá - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.03.25	Athletico Paranaense - Guarany de Bagé	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
28.07.24	Cuiabá - Athletico Paranaense	1:2
14.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	4:0
06.12.23	Cuiabá - Athletico Paranaense	3:0
15.08.23	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	2:0
18.09.22	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	2:2
29.05.22	Cuiabá - Athletico Paranaense	0:1
03.12.21	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	1:0

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