Match Info

BRAZIL: Baiano - Round 8

Date: 16 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Barradao (Salvador)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	TVE Bahia


	Vitória Salvador		Jequié

	1	X	2
	1.29	4.8	8.6
	1.21	5.89	15.89
	1.32	4.6	9.07	Watch
	1.25	5	10
	1.25	5.47	12
	1.3	4.7	8.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.32)	5.08 ↑ (4.5)	10.63 ↑ (8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória Salvador
73%

Draw
18.3%

Jequié
8.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.6%

20.1%

11.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.2%

18.8%

10.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Jequié has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jequié than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Vitória Salvador - Jequié Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 44. Baralhas 2. Claudinho 7. Gustavo Mosquito 83. Jamerson 39. Janderson 22. Lucas Braga 5. Lucas Halter 77. Neris (C) 10. Wellington Rato 29. Willian Oliveira	1. Thiago Passos (G) 6. Gilmar 20. Gregory 4. Jean 10. Joao Grilo (C) 9. Recife T. 3. Sergio Baiano 7. Vicente 11. Wanderson 2. Wanderson Lima 5. Ygor
Substitutes
37. Bruno Xavier 27. Caceres R. 99. Carlinhos 43. Edu 23. Fabricio 21. Gabriel (G) 6. Hugo 11. Osvaldo 8. Ronald Lopes 17. Thiaguinho 97. Val Soares 3. Ze Marcos	22. Andrey (G) 15. Azevedo 21. Flavio L. 14. Gabriel Henrique 8. Guga Freira 17. Kaynan 19. Lucas Shallon 23. Marcos Paulo 12. Neto Rocha (G) 16. Railan 18. Tiquinho 13. Weslley

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Willian Oliveira ⚽,
42', 2 - 0, Janderson ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Wanderson ↓, Guga Freira ↑,
46', Wanderson Lima ↓, Railan ↑,
46', Baralhas ↓, Thiaguinho ↑,
61', Lucas Braga ↓, Fabricio ↑,
61', Wellington Rato ↓, Bruno Xavier ↑,
66', Joao Grilo ↓, Tiquinho ↑,
71', Janderson ↓, Carlinhos ↑,
73', Railan 🟨,
76', Gustavo Mosquito ↓, Osvaldo ↑,
77', Bruno Xavier 🟨,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 6).

Vitória in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Jequié is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Jequié could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Vitória have a series of home games.

In this match Vitória is absolute favorite.

Our prediction for today's Vitória to win the game is with odds 1.38.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Vitória won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:2 (average 3:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Vitória won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
11.02.25	Vitória Salvador - Ferroviário Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
08.02.25	Vitória Salvador - Porto SC	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
04.02.25	Vitória Salvador - Sousa	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
01.02.25	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	0:0 ✺
29.01.25	Vitória Salvador - Jacobina	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWTW
- AD Jequié
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
08.02.25	Jequié - Jacobina	1:1 ✺
02.02.25	Porto SC - Jequié	1:2 ✺
29.01.25	Jequié - Bahia	1:3 ✺
25.01.25	Atlético de Alagoinhas - Jequié	0:0 ✺
18.01.25	Jequié - Colo Colo de Ilhéus	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
31.01.24	Jequié - Vitória Salvador	1:0
06.02.19	Vitória Salvador - Jequié	4:0
25.02.18	Jequié - Vitória Salvador	1:5

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