Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 26

Date: 12 September 2025, Friday

Location: Raulino de Oliveira (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Holanda L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Volta Redonda		Criciúma

	1	X	2
	3.1	3	2.4	Watch
	2.4	2.9	2.9
	2.92	2.92	2.52
	3.11	2.99	2.62
	3.08	2.89	2.50	Watch
	3.22	2.98	2.37	Watch
	2.33	2.85	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.33)	2.93 ↑ (2.85)	2.64 ↓ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Volta Redonda
32.6%

Draw
32%

Criciúma
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

32.1%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

33.5%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Volta Redonda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Volta Redonda's form might have worsened.

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Criciúma's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Volta Redonda than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Volta Redonda, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Criciúma, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	20%	50%

Volta Redonda - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Volta Redonda will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Criciúma will win (votes: 5 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Criciúma: 19% – 81%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Criciúma (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC, 1st Half - Criciúma (1.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Criciúma will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Jefferson Paulino (G) 13. Jhonny 19. Igor Morais 3. Gabriel Pinheiro 15. Lucas Adell 6. Sanchez 8. Thallyson 16. Rai 14. Chay 27. Catatau E. 99. Kayke	1. Alisson (G) 6. Marcinho 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Luciano Castan 76. Felipinho 5. Matheus Trindade 18. Leo Naldi 25. Guilherme Lobo 10. Jhonata Robert 77. Diego Goncalves 9. Nicolas
Substitutes
28. Andre Luiz 1. Avelino (G) 5. Bruno Barra 20. Chavez Cruz L. L. 29. Daniel Cabral 21. Henrique Silva 18. Igor Maduro 7. Joao Pedro 22. Juninho Monteiro 23. Matheus Lucas 17. Vitinho Lopes 2. Wellington Silva	19. Borasi B. 7. Fellipe Mateus 95. Georgemy (G) 11. Gustavo Maia 20. Jean Carlos 21. Joao Carlos 68. Jota 15. Leo Mana 34. Lucas Dias 88. Luiz Henrique 39. Thales 2. Yan Souto
Coaches
Rogerio Correa	Eduardo Baptista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Felipinho ↓, Luiz Henrique ↑,
16', Matheus Trindade 🟨,
32', Rogerio Correa 🟨,
32', Rogerio Correa 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Rodrigo 🟨,
56', Catatau E. 🟨,
60', Chay 🟨,
65', Rai ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
66', Chay ↓, Andre Luiz ↑,
73', Kayke ↓, Matheus Lucas ↑,
73', Thallyson ↓, Igor Maduro ↑,
77', Jhonata Robert ↓, Borasi B. ↑,
80', Catatau E. ↓, Vitinho Lopes ↑,
82', Vitinho Lopes 🟨,
85', Andre Luiz 🟨,
87', Nicolas ↓, Thales ↑,
88', Guilherme Lobo ↓, Fellipe Mateus ↑,
88', Diego Goncalves ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
90+3', Luciano Castan 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

In recent matches, Volta Redonda has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Criciúma is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Volta Redonda may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Volta Redonda: Du Fernandes (Inactive)

There will not play in Criciúma: Heitor Roca (Knee Injury) Leo Alaba (Injury)

There are questionable in Volta Redonda: Italo (Inactive) Marquinhos (Inactive)

There are questionable in Criciúma: Kaua Moroso (Back Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Volta Redonda won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.3:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Volta Redonda won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Volta Redonda
Brazilian Serie B
05.09.25	Paysandu - Volta Redonda	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Volta Redonda - Athletic Club	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Ferroviária - Volta Redonda	0:0 ✺
18.08.25	Volta Redonda - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
09.08.25	Volta Redonda - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLTLT
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
10.09.25	Caravaggio - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
07.09.25	Criciúma - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
28.08.25	Remo - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
22.08.25	Criciúma - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:0 ✺
18.08.25	Athletic Club - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
11.05.25	Criciúma - Volta Redonda	0:0
Brazilian Serie C
07.11.20	Volta Redonda - Criciúma	0:0
06.09.20	Criciúma - Volta Redonda	1:1

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