The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Watford 37%
Draw 25%
Durham 38%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
40.1%
26.7%
33.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38.4%
25.5%
34.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Watford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)
Durham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Watford than the current prediction. (+1.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Durham than the current prediction. (-3.4%)
Watford - Durham Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
39. Middleton-Patel S. (G) 6. Greenwood H. 17. Chandler M. (C) 22. Neville G. 16. Muya K. 18. Wilson P. 15. Clancy A. 19. Noble E. 9. Perry M. 10. Poole P. 24. Jones V.
35. Sheppard C. (G) 2. Ayre G. 5. Wilson S. (C) 24. Morran E. 3. Briggs L. 23. Lowe R. 21. Stobbs A. 10. Ede G. 7. Hepple B. 9. Watson L. 11. Pennock J.
Substitutes
4. Filbey A. 14. Gray E. 23. Haines C. 5. Lyon L. 20. Noonan S. 7. Paul L. 12. Skyers E. 11. Teisar T. 25. Williams N. (G)
18. Addison A. 15. Bradley D. 25. Brown E. 22. Collinson G. 17. Fergusson O. 13. King A. (G) 4. McComasky M. 12. Noble L. 6. Wilson E.
Coaches
Hector R.
Kirk W.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Poole P. ⚽, Perry M. (A),
35', Ede G. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Morran E. ↓, Bradley D. ↑,
47', 2 - 0, Jones V. ⚽,
52', Noble E. ↓, Filbey A. ↑,
55', Watson L. ↓, Collinson G. ↑,
58', Poole P. ↓, Noonan S. ↑,
58', Greenwood H. ↓, Lyon L. ↑,
61', 3 - 0, Clancy A. ⚽,
65', 4 - 0, Perry M. ⚽,
66', Jones V. ↓, Haines C. ↑,
66', Muya K. ↓, Paul L. ↑,
67', Stobbs A. ↓, Wilson E. ↑,
67', Lowe R. ↓, Addison A. ↑,
81', Ayre G. ↓, Noble L. ↑,
84', Neville G. 🟨,
86', 4 - 1, Hepple B. ⚽,
90+8', 4 - 2, Hepple B. ⚽,
Preview
A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 10th and 12th in the Relegation).
Recent results have been tough for Watford (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Durham is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Durham may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Watford has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:8 (averaging 1.4:1.6 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Watford against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 4:6 goals (averaging 1.3:2 per game).