Match Info

National League - Round 4

Date: 28 August 2026, Friday

Location: Grosvenor Vale (London)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Wealdstone		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	3.80	3.70	1.80
	3.60	3.40	1.80
	3.95	3.85	1.74	Watch
	3.93	4.14	1.82
	3.66	3.76	1.89	Watch
	3.55	4	1.87
	3.74	3.74	1.77	Watch
	3.7	3.7	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.74 ↑ (3.07)	3.79 ↑ (3.65)	1.82 ↓ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wealdstone
24.7%

Draw
24.4%

Carlisle United
50.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

25.4%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

25.1%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wealdstone has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Wealdstone's form might have worsened.

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carlisle United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wealdstone than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Wealdstone, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carlisle United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Wealdstone - Carlisle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baptiste D. (G) 18. Smith K. 5. Conroy D. 22. McAvoy C. (C) 23. Mundle-Smith J. 9. Olomola O. 15. Henry A. 6. Barrett M. 4. Wells-Morrison J. 7. Norris L. 14. Obiero M.	1. Desbois A. (G) 40. Mullarkey T. 15. Nicholson B. 12. Galvin R. 17. Duru L. 18. Ellis J. 6. Azeez M. 4. Bunker H. 7. Ajiboye D. 10. Linney R. 9. Kelly G. (C)
Substitutes
11. Chesters D. 12. Francis-Clarke A. 10. Harris J. J. 13. Johnson E. (G) 16. Mullins J. 3. Newton J. 19. Waweru W.	5. Feeney M. 25. Lowes J. 11. Luamba J. 16. Mair A. (G) 19. Skinner L. 20. Wearne S. 22. Williams J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', Mullarkey T. ↓, Feeney M. ↑,
34', 0 - 1, Ajiboye D. ⚽, Kelly G. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Ajiboye D. ↓, Wearne S. ↑,
58', Linney R. ↓, Luamba J. ↑,
58', Duru L. ↓, Williams J. ↑,
61', Barrett M. 🟨,
61', Kelly G. 🟨,
66', Olomola O. ↓, Chesters D. ↑,
66', Norris L. ↓, Harris J. J. ↑,
69', Mundle-Smith J. ↓, Newton J. ↑,
75', Barrett M. ↓, Francis-Clarke A. ↑,
85', Nicholson B. 🟨,
89', Azeez M. 🟨,
90', 1 - 1, Henry A. ⚽,
90+4', Wearne S. 🟨,

Preview

Wealdstone has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Carlisle's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Carlisle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Carlisle could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Wealdstone won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Wealdstone won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Carlisle	13	4	5	4	23:20	3	17
19	Wealdstone	13	3	3	7	17:24	-7	12

Last Results with these Odds

Wealdstone - the odds 3.07 are the expected chance of winning is 30.21%, but this team recently wins 8% of matches with these odds.

Carlisle United - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.38%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wealdstone
English National League
22.08.26	Worthing - Wealdstone	1:0 ✺
English National League Cup
18.08.26	Wealdstone - Wolverhampton Wanderers U21	1:3 ✺
English National League
15.08.26	Wealdstone - Harrogate Town	1:3 ✺
08.08.26	Fylde - Wealdstone	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Slough Town - Wealdstone	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLLTW
- Carlisle United
English National League
22.08.26	Carlisle United - Hornchurch	4:1 ✺
15.08.26	Yeovil Town - Carlisle United	1:1 ✺
08.08.26	Carlisle United - Worthing	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
28.07.26	Carlisle United - Salford City	0:2 ✺
21.07.26	Darlington - Carlisle United	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League
03.01.26	Carlisle United - Wealdstone	2:0
23.08.25	Wealdstone - Carlisle United	0:1

Wealdstone - Carlisle United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide