Match Info

Division 1 - Round 14

Date: 27 October 2025, Monday

Location: ArcelorMittal Park (Sosnowiec)

Referee: Malec P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport


	Wieczysta Kraków		Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.33	4.33	Watch
	1.58	4.35	4.65
	1.6	4.24	4.66
	1.57	4.30	4.67	Watch
	1.61	4.48	4.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.57)	4.34 ↑ (4.3)	4.56 ↓ (4.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wieczysta Kraków
58.4%

Draw
21.3%

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

21.5%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

22.2%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wieczysta Kraków has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wieczysta Kraków than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	11.1%	33.3%

Wieczysta Kraków - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Wieczysta will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Grodzisk Mazowiecki will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wieczysta: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Wieczysta (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Grodzisk Mazowiecki (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Wieczysta (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Grodzisk Mazowiecki (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mikulko A. (G) 17. Dankowski K. 89. Mikolajewski D. 2. Pazdan M. (C) 33. Pestka K. 12. Piazon L. 3. Goralski J. 77. Semedo L. 29. Lysiak P. 20. Chuma 27. Carlitos	1. Kieszek P. (G) 52. Olewinski O. 99. Noiszewski K. 16. Gajgier A. 6. Farbiszewski B. 27. Konstantyn J. 31. Staniszewski J. 21. Los K. (C) 7. Jedrasik J. 71. Szczepaniak M. 19. Adamski R.
Substitutes
18. Feiertag S. 5. Fila K. 7. Gajos M. 70. Pusic P. 21. Rafa Lopes 28. Soberka K. (G) 8. Swedrowski T. 44. Szymonowicz D. 23. Villar Miki	30. Barnowski D. 9. Gieroba S. 25. Glacel M. (G) 8. Gulczynski G. 10. Jaron D. 11. Kargulewicz K. 92. Krupa J. 13. Lis J. 20. Wypart O.
Coaches
Lettieri G.	Stokowiec P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Szczepaniak M. ⚽, Jedrasik J. (A),
7', 1 - 1, Lysiak P. ⚽, Piazon L. (A),
41', 2 - 1, Carlitos ⚽, Semedo L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
54', 2 - 2, Jedrasik J. ⚽, Adamski R. (A),
67', Carlitos ↓, Rafa Lopes ↑,
67', Lysiak P. ↓, Pusic P. ↑,
67', Goralski J. ↓, Feiertag S. ↑,
71', Pazdan M. 🟨,
72', Konstantyn J. ↓, Barnowski D. ↑,
72', Szczepaniak M. ↓, Lis J. ↑,
75', Pazdan M. ↓, Fila K. ↑,
79', Semedo L. ↓, Villar Miki ↑,
81', Jedrasik J. ↓, Gieroba S. ↑,
86', Chuma 🟨,
90+1', 2 - 3, Gieroba S. ⚽,
90+2', Olewinski O. ↓, Wypart O. ↑,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - ArcelorMittal Park.

Wieczysta has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Grodzisk Mazowiecki is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Wieczysta is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Wieczysta won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Wieczysta won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wieczysta Kraków
Polish Division 1
18.10.25	GKS Tychy - Wieczysta Kraków	3:3 ✺
05.10.25	Odra Opole - Wieczysta Kraków	2:0 ✺
02.10.25	Wieczysta Kraków - Wisła Kraków	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Wieczysta Kraków - Ruch Chorzów	4:2 ✺
21.09.25	ŁKS Łódź - Wieczysta Kraków	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TLTWT
- Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 1
17.10.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Ruch Chorzów	2:2 ✺
04.10.25	Pogoń Siedlce - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
29.09.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - ŁKS Łódź	3:0 ✺
Polish Cup
24.09.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Lechia Gdańsk	0:1 ✺
Polish Division 1
19.09.25	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 2
29.03.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Wieczysta Kraków	2:1
01.09.24	Wieczysta Kraków - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:1

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