Match Info

Division 1 - Round 12

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion ROSRRiT (Siedlce)

Referee: Kaliszewski F. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Pogoń Siedlce		Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.5	2.6	Watch
	2.4	3.5	2.5
	2.48	3.45	2.58
	2.5	3.66	2.65
	2.76	2.91	2.75	Watch
	2.44	3.56	2.64	Watch
	2.36	3.4	2.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.43)	3.43 ↓ (3.55)	2.6 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Siedlce
37.4%

Draw
27%

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

26.1%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

25.9%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Siedlce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Siedlce than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	42.9%	42.9%

Pogoń Siedlce - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Pogoń Siedlce will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Grodzisk Mazowiecki will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Grodzisk Mazowiecki (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Pogoń Siedlce (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Pogoń Siedlce (votes: 1 - 25%). Grodzisk Mazowiecki (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
57. Lemanowicz J. (G) 4. Misiak P. 3. Dembek B. 6. Flis M. 14. Jakubik D. 41. Pakulski D. 31. Dzieciol E. 27. Zbrog J. 7. Szuprytowski D. (C) 11. Famulak M. 13. Podlinski K.	1. Kieszek P. (G) 99. Noiszewski K. 16. Gajgier A. 6. Farbiszewski B. 52. Olewinski O. 21. Los K. (C) 77. Adkonis J. 27. Konstantyn J. 4. Korczakowski I. 19. Adamski R. 71. Szczepaniak M.
Substitutes
23. Danielewicz K. 56. Demianiuk C. 19. Kozlowski O. 77. Pik D. 9. Rybak A. 17. Saganowski F. 21. Stypulkowski S. 1. Tomkiel J. (G) 95. Zielonka N.	30. Barnowski D. 9. Gieroba S. 80. Glacel M. (G) 10. Jaron D. 7. Jedrasik J. 11. Kargulewicz K. 13. Lis J. 31. Staniszewski J. 20. Wypart O.
Coaches
Nocon A.	Stokowiec P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
6', Famulak M. 🟨,
17', Misiak P. 🟨,
18', 0 - 1, Noiszewski K. ⚽, Olewinski O. (A),
30', Olewinski O. 🟨,
38', Los K. 🟨,
39', 1 - 1, Dembek B. ⚽, Famulak M. (A),
42', 1 - 2, Szczepaniak M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Olewinski O. ↓, Barnowski D. ↑,
52', Dzieciol E. 🟨,
59', Szuprytowski D. ↓, Demianiuk C. ↑,
65', Zbrog J. ↓, Zielonka N. ↑,
65', Misiak P. ↓, Pik D. ↑,
73', Noiszewski K. 🟨,
73', Konstantyn J. ↓, Wypart O. ↑,
73', Szczepaniak M. ↓, Jedrasik J. ↑,
75', Barnowski D. 🟨,
85', Demianiuk C. 🟨,
86', Dzieciol E. ↓, Rybak A. ↑,
86', Korczakowski I. ↓, Gieroba S. ↑,
90+3', Adkonis J. ↓, Staniszewski J. ↑,
90+5', Danielewicz K. 🟨,
90+5', Flis M. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Pogoń Siedlce may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Pogoń Siedlce has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pogoń Siedlce won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 2.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Pogoń Siedlce won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 2.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Siedlce
Polish Division 1
27.09.25	GKS Tychy - Pogoń Siedlce	1:3 ✺
Polish Cup
24.09.25	Miedź Legnica - Pogoń Siedlce	2:0 ✺
Polish Division 1
20.09.25	Pogoń Siedlce - Śląsk Wrocław	2:3 ✺
12.09.25	Chrobry Głogów - Pogoń Siedlce	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Znicz Pruszków - Pogoń Siedlce	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WLLLW
- Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 1
29.09.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - ŁKS Łódź	3:0 ✺
Polish Cup
24.09.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Lechia Gdańsk	0:1 ✺
Polish Division 1
19.09.25	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Górnik Łęczna	3:3 ✺
30.08.25	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
28.06.25	Pogoń Siedlce - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:1
04.02.23	Pogoń Siedlce - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:1
09.07.22	Pogoń Siedlce - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	2:0
Polish Division 2
05.04.22	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Pogoń Siedlce	1:2
19.09.21	Pogoń Siedlce - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:2

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