Match Info

Division 1 - Round 13

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday

Location: Stadion Miejski (Grodzisk Mazowiecki)

Referee: Karski L. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport


	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki		Ruch Chorzów

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.5	2.88	Watch
	2.38	3.45	2.72
	2.33	3.6	2.94
	1.58	4.03	5.33	Watch
	2.34	3.42	2.72
	2.37	3.23	2.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.45)	3.54 ↑ (3.35)	3.2 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
43%

Draw
27%

Ruch Chorzów
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

27.6%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

27.1%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki's performance.

Ruch Chorzów has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ruch Chorzów than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	25%	8.3%

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Ruch Chorzów Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Grodzisk Mazowiecki will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Ruch Chorzów will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grodzisk Mazowiecki: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Grodzisk Mazowiecki (votes: 3 - 60%). Ruch Chorzów (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kieszek P. (G) 99. Noiszewski K. 6. Farbiszewski B. 16. Gajgier A. 52. Olewinski O. 77. Adkonis J. 21. Los K. 27. Konstantyn J. 4. Korczakowski I. 71. Szczepaniak M. 19. Adamski R.	1. Szymanski J. (G) 15. Konczkowski M. 28. Lesniak-Paduch N. 24. Komor A. 4. Preisler D. 27. Szwoch M. 20. Szymanski S. (C) 18. Nagamatsu S. 21. Szwedzik P. 7. Kolar M. 77. Ceglarz P.
Substitutes
30. Barnowski D. 9. Gieroba S. 25. Glacel M. (G) 10. Jaron D. 7. Jedrasik J. 11. Kargulewicz K. 13. Lis J. 31. Staniszewski J. 20. Wypart O.	9. Bala T. 38. Karasinski S. 17. Lukic A. 23. Mezghrani M. 14. Nono 12. Proczek N. (G) 30. Sobeczko J. 25. Ventura D. 22. Zurawski M.
Coaches
Stokowiec P.	Fornalik W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Noiszewski K. (Pen),
40', Korczakowski I. ↓, Lis J. ↑,
45+4', 1 - 1, Szwedzik P. ⚽, Kolar M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 1 - 2, Szwedzik P. ⚽,
51', Szwedzik P. 🟨,
58', Ceglarz P. ↓, Ventura D. ↑,
70', 2 - 2, Adamski R. (Pen),
72', Konstantyn J. ↓, Barnowski D. ↑,
72', Szczepaniak M. ↓, Jedrasik J. ↑,
77', Lis J. 🟨,
86', Kolar M. ↓, Mezghrani M. ↑,
86', Nagamatsu S. ↓, Sobeczko J. ↑,
90+2', Lis J. ↓, Jaron D. ↑,
90+4', Szwedzik P. ↓, Bala T. ↑,
90+6', Noiszewski K. 🟨,
90+8', Los K. 🟨,

Preview

Grodzisk Mazowiecki is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ruch Chorzów has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Grodzisk Mazowiecki won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Grodzisk Mazowiecki won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 1
04.10.25	Pogoń Siedlce - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
29.09.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - ŁKS Łódź	3:0 ✺
Polish Cup
24.09.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Lechia Gdańsk	0:1 ✺
Polish Division 1
19.09.25	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Górnik Łęczna	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWLWT
- Ruch Chorzów
Polish Division 1
05.10.25	Wisła Kraków - Ruch Chorzów	3:0 ✺
28.09.25	Wieczysta Kraków - Ruch Chorzów	4:2 ✺
Polish Cup
25.09.25	Avia Świdnik - Ruch Chorzów	3:1 ✺
Polish Division 1
22.09.25	Ruch Chorzów - Chrobry Głogów	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Ruch Chorzów - ŁKS Łódź	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 2
12.03.22	Ruch Chorzów - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	4:1
28.08.21	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Ruch Chorzów	1:1

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