Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 6

Date: 12 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Chapín (Jerez)


	Xerez CD		Almeria B

	1	X	2
	1.4	3.8	7.3
	1.49	3.67	7.86
	1.05	1.00	1.00	Watch
	1.45	3.8	7.8
	1.83	3.15	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.83)	3.08 ↓ (3.24)	5.65 ↑ (4.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Xerez CD
58%

Draw
27.2%

Almeria B
14.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

28.6%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

25.1%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Xerez CD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Xerez CD's performance.

Almeria B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Almeria B might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Xerez CD than the current prediction. (-13.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Xerez CD that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almeria B than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Almeria B could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Xerez CD - Almeria B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Castillo M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Recent performances by Xerez have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Almeria B is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Xerez is the clear favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Xerez won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Xerez won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Xerez CD
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
05.10.25	Melilla - Xerez CD	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Xerez CD - Estepona	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Águilas - Xerez CD	0:0 ✺
14.09.25	Xerez CD - Antoniano	2:0 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
10.09.25	Unión Molinense - Xerez CD	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TLTWL
- Almeria B
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
05.10.25	Almeria B - Águilas	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	Minera - Almeria B	4:0 ✺
21.09.25	Almeria B - Linares Deportivo	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Atlético Malagueño - Almeria B	0:1 ✺
07.09.25	Almeria B - Recreativo Huelva	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
02.03.25	Xerez CD - Almeria B	0:0
20.10.24	Almeria B - Xerez CD	1:0

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