Match Info

Super League - Round 22

Date: 21 September 2026, Monday

Location: Xorazm Stadium (Urgench)

Referee: To'ychiboyev O. (Uzb)


	Xorazm Urganch		Qizilqum

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.00	3.40
	2.05	2.95	3.40
	2.09	3.21	3.82
	2.04	3.12	3.61	Watch
	2.01	3.15	3.75
	1.94	3.29	3.81
	2.08	3.05	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.05)	3.11 ↓ (3.26)	3.61 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Xorazm Urganch
45.1%

Draw
29.5%

Qizilqum
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

28.2%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

28%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Xorazm Urganch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Qizilqum has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Xorazm Urganch than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Qizilqum than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Xorazm Urganch - Qizilqum Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Ergashev U. (G) 94. Abdukhamidov R. 9. Azimov S. 13. Lohan 15. Ortikboev D. 5. Otakhonov A. 55. Pirmukhamedov A. 96. Rafael Sabino 10. Rafael Tavares 25. Rom M. 12. Shiryaev M.	1. Rakhmatov F. (G) 20. Bozorov B. 31. Jigauri J. 7. Jumankuziev F. 88. Jurakuziev O. 10. Kenzhaboev I. (C) 15. Kumburovic N. 77. Rahmatilloyev D. 8. Rakhmatullaev S. 23. Shukurillaev S. 9. Turopov S.
Substitutes
8. Abdikholikov N. 79. Akhrorov A. 7. Ismoilov T. 22. Khamidzhonov S. 90. Khoshimov U. 88. Khusinov A. . Muzaffarov N. 33. Stosic N. (G) 71. Sultonov U.	18. Abdugafforov A. 33. Ergashev O. 72. Mamatkulov J. (G) 70. Maykon Douglas 17. Muzaffarov A. 14. Otakulov E. 97. Paparyga R. 67. Qoldoshev M. 6. Usmonov M.
Coaches
Tokov S.	Saidov J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
29', 1 - 0, Rafael Tavares ⚽,
40', 1 - 1, Jurakuziev O. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Rafael Tavares ↓, Khoshimov U. ↑,
46', Shiryaev M. ↓, Khamidzhonov S. ↑,
46', Jurakuziev O. ↓, Otakulov E. ↑,
59', Khoshimov U. 🟨,
61', Khoshimov U. 🟥,
63', Azimov S. ↓, Sultonov U. ↑,
67', Abdukhamidov R. ↓, Akhrorov A. ↑,
69', Kenzhaboev I. ↓, Paparyga R. ↑,
69', Turopov S. ↓, Maykon Douglas ↑,
77', 1 - 2, Paparyga R. ⚽, Rahmatilloyev D. (A),
82', Rom M. ↓, Ismoilov T. ↑,
87', Bozorov B. ↓, Abdugafforov A. ↑,
90', 1 - 3, Paparyga R. ⚽,
90+2', Rakhmatullaev S. ↓, Ergashev O. ↑,
90+5', Paparyga R. 🟨,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 14th in the Super League (Relegation) and 11th).

Xorazm is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Qizilqum has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Xorazm may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Xorazm holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Xorazm has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:1 (averaging 1:0.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Xorazm against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Qizilqum	22	9	2	11	23:30	-7	29
14	Xorazm Urganch	23	5	7	11	20:34	-14	22

Last Results with these Odds

Qizilqum - the odds 3.41 are the expected chance of winning is 26.96%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Xorazm Urganch
Uzbek Cup
16.09.26	AGMK - Xorazm Urganch	2:1 ✺
Uzbek League
10.09.26	Xorazm Urganch - Sogdiana Jizzakh	0:0 ✺
03.09.26	AGMK - Xorazm Urganch	1:0 ✺
25.08.26	Andijan - Xorazm Urganch	1:0 ✺
20.08.26	Xorazm Urganch - Lokomotiv Tashkent	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTLLL
- Qizilqum PFK
Uzbek League
10.09.26	Dinamo Samarqand - Qizilqum	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Qizilqum - Buxoro	3:2 ✺
26.08.26	Qizilqum - Nasaf Qarshi	1:0 ✺
18.08.26	Sogdiana Jizzakh - Qizilqum	2:1 ✺
14.08.26	Qizilqum - Mashal Mubarek	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Uzbek League
29.04.26	Qizilqum - Xorazm Urganch	0:0
18.08.25	Xorazm Urganch - Qizilqum	0:1
06.06.25	Qizilqum - Xorazm Urganch	0:3

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