Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 5

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estádio Olímpico Colosso da Lagoa (Erechim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping


	Ypiranga		Ituano

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2	2.98	3.6
	2.14	3.1	3.61
	2	3.18	3.93	Watch
	2.05	2.8	3.4
	2.15	3	3.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.85)	3.01 ↓ (3.07)	3.63 ↓ (4.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ypiranga
44.3%

Draw
30.4%

Ituano
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

29.3%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.4%

31%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ypiranga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ypiranga than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ypiranga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Ypiranga - Ituano Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ypiranga will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ituano will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Gabriel Werner (G) 23. Danielzinho 27. Dionisio 28. Gustavo Simoes 21. Leo Gobo 79. Leo Rafael 6. Nicolas 43. Ramon Vinicius 9. Renan Gorne 22. Walce 3. Willian Gomes (C)	1. Wesley Borges (G) 7. Alason Carioca 3. Carlao 9. Gabriel Razera 5. Gabriel William 6. Guilherme Dal Pian 10. Guilherme Xavier (C) 11. Leo Passos 2. Lucas Mota 8. Martha 4. Matheus Mancini
Substitutes
41. Adilson Junior 17. Bryam 20. Dudu 33. Eduardo Grechi 10. Estevao 7. Felipe Ferreira 15. Lucas Fogaca 16. Lucas Ramos 80. Marcelinho 5. Rian 11. Vini Charopem 35. Ze Carlos (G)	21. Bruno Alves 19. Bruno Mezenga 14. Leandro Sergipe 15. Leo Coltro 20. Lucas Stefanello 18. Nelsinho 17. Neto Berola 12. Saulo (G) 13. Thassio 16. Tiaguinho 22. Victor Reis
Coaches
Gabardo Junior	de Freitas U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Nicolas ↓, Dudu ↑,
32', Walce 🟨,
35', Martha 🟨,
42', Willian Gomes 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 0, Leo Rafael ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Martha ↓, Neto Berola ↑,
60', Gabriel Razera ↓, Tiaguinho ↑,
60', Alason Carioca ↓, Thassio ↑,
63', Gustavo Simoes ↓, Bryam ↑,
63', Walce ↓, Rian ↑,
64', Neto Berola (Penalty Awarded),
76', Guilherme Xavier ↓, Bruno Mezenga ↑,
77', Matheus Mancini 🟨,
78', Dionisio ↓, Lucas Ramos ↑,
78', Renan Gorne ↓, Estevao ↑,
82', Tiaguinho 🟨,
90', 2 - 0, Estevao ⚽,
90+6', Nelsinho 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 9).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Ituano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ypiranga is considered a favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ypiranga won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ypiranga won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ypiranga FC
Brazilian Serie C
27.04.26	Caxias - Ypiranga	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Ypiranga - Anápolis	3:0 ✺
12.04.26	Itabaiana - Ypiranga	1:2 ✺
06.04.26	Ypiranga - Figueirense	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
11.03.26	Athletic Club - Ypiranga	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWWTL
- Ituano
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
30.04.26	Ferroviária - Ituano	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
26.04.26	Ituano - Maringá	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
23.04.26	Ituano - Ferroviária	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
18.04.26	Internacional de Limeira - Ituano	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
15.04.26	Ituano - Votuporanguense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
23.08.25	Ituano - Ypiranga	2:1
19.09.21	Ypiranga - Ituano	0:0
18.07.21	Ituano - Ypiranga	2:1
28.11.20	Ituano - Ypiranga	1:2
27.09.20	Ypiranga - Ituano	2:1

Ypiranga - Ituano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide