Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 7

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Olímpico Colosso da Lagoa (Erechim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Ypiranga		Maringá

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.78	2.92	2.45	Watch
	2.89	3.25	2.52
	2.88	3.04	2.54	Watch
	2.8	2.75	2.45
	2.77	2.92	2.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↑ (2.41)	2.98 ↑ (2.93)	2.48 ↓ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ypiranga
32.4%

Draw
30.7%

Maringá
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

31.7%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

31.4%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ypiranga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ypiranga's form might have worsened.

Maringá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Maringá's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ypiranga than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ypiranga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Maringá, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ypiranga - Maringá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Gabriel Werner (G) 2. Cleiton 23. Danielzinho 27. Dionisio 10. Estevao 21. Leo Gobo 6. Nicolas 43. Ramon Vinicius 11. Vini Charopem 22. Walce 3. Willian Gomes (C)	25. Neto (G) 8. Adeilson 99. Caique Calito 7. Edison Negueba 14. Felipe Cardoso 3. Gabriel Santos 2. Gabriel Souza 9. Giovane Gomez 10. Guilherme Pira (C) 18. Jhow Alecxander 5. Kelvi Gomes
Substitutes
41. Adilson Junior 17. Bryam 20. Dudu 7. Felipe Ferreira 28. Gustavo Simoes 15. Joao Branco 16. Lucas Ramos 80. Marcelinho 4. Reinaldo 9. Renan Gorne 5. Rian 35. Ze Carlos (G)	20. Bruno Cheron 32. Caua Tavares 11. Danielzinho 28. Lucas Bonifacio 15. Neira N. 77. Rafinha 29. Rai Natalino 12. Romario (G) 21. Ronald Camarao

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
13', 1 - 0, Estevao ⚽,
18', 🟨,
22', 1 - 1, Kelvi Gomes ⚽,
34', 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 2, Gabriel Santos ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Guilherme Pira ↓, Lucas Bonifacio ↑,
55', 1 - 3, Lucas Bonifacio ⚽,
71', 🟨,
72', Giovane Gomez ↓, Ronald Camarao ↑,
72', Caique Calito ↓, Rai Natalino ↑,
75', 🟨,
82', 🟨,
85', 1 - 4, Ronald Camarao ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Ypiranga might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ypiranga won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Including home match between the teams, Ypiranga won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Maringa FC: 6.99%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ypiranga FC
Brazilian Serie C
10.05.26	Brusque - Ypiranga	3:0 ✺
05.05.26	Ypiranga - Ituano	2:0 ✺
27.04.26	Caxias - Ypiranga	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Ypiranga - Anápolis	3:0 ✺
12.04.26	Itabaiana - Ypiranga	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LWLWW
- Maringá FC
Brazilian Serie C
11.05.26	Maringá - Guarani	0:5 ✺
03.05.26	Maringá - Itabaiana	4:2 ✺
26.04.26	Ituano - Maringá	4:1 ✺
20.04.26	Maringá - Brusque	2:3 ✺
13.04.26	Figueirense - Maringá	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
06.07.25	Ypiranga - Maringá	0:0

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