Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 15

Date: 7 November 2025, Friday

Location: KGHM Zaglebie Arena (Lubin)

Referee: Kos D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	FOX Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport, Ekstraklasa TV
Spain	GolStadium
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Zagłębie Lubin		Górnik Zabrze

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.5	2.2	Watch
	2.88	3.4	2.28	Watch
	3.29	3.45	2.27
	3.01	3.69	2.20	Watch
	3.13	3.53	2.22	Watch
	3.05	3.45	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.98)	3.5 ↑ (3.12)	2.23 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zagłębie Lubin
30.7%

Draw
26.9%

Górnik Zabrze
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

28.6%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

28.1%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Lubin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Górnik Zabrze has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Górnik Zabrze than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.5%	0%	76.5%

Zagłębie Lubin - Górnik Zabrze Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Górnik Zabrze will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Górnik Zabrze: 56.3% – 96.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Górnik Zabrze will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Buric J. (G) 31. Orlikowski I. 25. Nalepa M. (C) 4. Michalski D. 3. Yakuba R. 26. Kolan J. 39. Kocaba F. 44. Regula M. 18. Radwanski A. 35. Lucic L. 55. Rocha L.	1. Lubik M. (G) 16. Olkowski P. 26. Janicki R. 20. Josema 64. Janza E. (C) 28. Donio B. 30. Sow O. 18. Ambros L. 14. Kubicki J. 33. Khlan M. 23. Liseth S.
Substitutes
27. Diaz J. 20. Dziewiatowski M. 12. Gikiewicz R. (G) 13. Grzybek M. 9. Kosidis M. 6. Makowski T. 71. Nowogonski K. 2. Sochan K. 19. Sypek J. 77. Szmyt K. 17. Wdowiak M. 11. Wozniak A.	22. Abdullahi A. 19. Dziegielewski N. 9. Gabriel Barbosa 79. Goh Young-Jun 81. Kmet M. 99. Loska T. (G) 17. Lukoszek K. 55. Pingot M. 10. Podolski L. 5. Szczesniak K. 7. Zahovic L.
Coaches
Ojrzynski L.	Gasparik M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Rocha L. ⚽,
15', Yakuba R. 🟨,
30', Rocha L. 🟨,
42', Donio B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 2 - 0, Kocaba F. ⚽,
55', Donio B. ↓, Zahovic L. ↑,
56', Olkowski P. ↓, Kmet M. ↑,
57', Orlikowski I. 🟨,
66', Khlan M. ↓, Lukoszek K. ↑,
69', Regula M. 🟨,
70', Radwanski A. ↓, Sypek J. ↑,
70', Rocha L. ↓, Kosidis M. ↑,
70', Regula M. ↓, Szmyt K. ↑,
76', Liseth S. ↓, Gabriel Barbosa ↑,
76', Sow O. ↓, Abdullahi A. ↑,
86', Orlikowski I. ↓, Grzybek M. ↑,
90+1', Grzybek M. 🟨,
90+4', Kolan J. ↓, Makowski T. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 3.

In recent matches, Zagłębie Lubin has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Górnik Zabrze is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Recently, Zagłębie Lubin has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:27. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Zagłębie Lubin won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:18. (average 1.6:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Zagłębie Lubin - the odds 2.98 are the expected chance of winning is 29.93%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Górnik Zabrze - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 41.48%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zagłębie Lubin
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.11.25	Cracovia - Zagłębie Lubin	0:0 ✺
Polish Cup
29.10.25	Widzew Łódź - Zagłębie Lubin	1:0 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
24.10.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Zagłębie Lubin	1:1 ✺
19.10.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Legia Warsaw	3:1 ✺
04.10.25	Radomiak Radom - Zagłębie Lubin	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TLTWL
- Górnik Zabrze
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.11.25	Górnik Zabrze - Arka Gdynia	5:1 ✺
Polish Cup
30.10.25	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Zabrze	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.25	Górnik Zabrze - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Korona Kielce - Górnik Zabrze	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
11.04.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Górnik Zabrze	2:1
05.10.24	Górnik Zabrze - Zagłębie Lubin	0:1
08.04.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Górnik Zabrze	1:2
02.10.23	Górnik Zabrze - Zagłębie Lubin	0:2
14.04.23	Zagłębie Lubin - Górnik Zabrze	0:2
01.10.22	Górnik Zabrze - Zagłębie Lubin	2:3
Club Friendly
02.07.22	Zagłębie Lubin - Górnik Zabrze	3:0

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