Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 3

Date: 1 August 2025, Friday

Location: KGHM Zaglebie Arena (Lubin)

Referee: Myc W. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 3


	Zagłębie Lubin		Korona Kielce

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.25	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.2
	2.15	3.3	3.1	Watch
	2.18	3.4	3.48
	2.28	3.20	3.19	Watch
	2.15	3.25	3.25
	2.22	3.5	3.23	Watch
	2.21	3.1	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.22)	3.31 ↑ (3.18)	3.23 ↑ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zagłębie Lubin
42.8%

Draw
28.3%

Korona Kielce
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

29.2%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

28.1%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Lubin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Korona Kielce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Korona Kielce than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.7%	26.7%	26.7%

Zagłębie Lubin - Korona Kielce Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Korona will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zagłębie Lubin: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Zagłębie Lubin (1.67) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Hladun D. (G) 25. Nalepa M. 17. Wdowiak M. 5. Lawniczak A. 3. Yakuba R. 8. Dabrowski D. (C) 27. Kludka B. 44. Regula M. 18. Radwanski A. 77. Szmyt K. 39. Kocaba F.	1. Dziekonski X. (G) 61. Budnicki J. 44. Sotiriou K. 6. Pieczek M. 71. Dlugosz W. 88. Svetlin T. 8. Remacle M. 3. Matuszewski K. 9. Davidovic S. 11. Nikolov V. 7. Blanik D. (C)
Substitutes
20. Dziewiatowski M. 26. Kolan J. 9. Kosidis M. 35. Lucic L. 6. Makowski T. 22. Matysek A. (G) 4. Michalski D. 7. Mroz M. 71. Nowogonski K. 99. Popielec C. 19. Sypek J. 11. Wozniak A.	70. Antonin 21. Ciszek K. 27. Kaminski W. 87. Mamla R. (G) 20. Minuczyc K. 15. Niski N. 24. Smolarczyk B. 13. Strzebonski M. 37. Zwozny H.
Coaches
Ojrzynski L.	Zielinski J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Nikolov V. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Nikolov V. ↓, Antonin ↑,
62', Yakuba R. 🟨,
66', Wdowiak M. ↓, Sypek J. ↑,
66', Regula M. ↓, Kosidis M. ↑,
66', Szmyt K. ↓, Nowogonski K. ↑,
66', Sypek J. 🟨,
68', 0 - 1, Antonin ⚽,
69', Davidovic S. ↓, Niski N. ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Kosidis M. ⚽, Sypek J. (A),
78', Radwanski A. ↓, Mroz M. ↑,
88', Remacle M. ↓, Strzebonski M. ↑,
90+4', Blanik D. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 1.

Zagłębie Lubin has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Korona has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Zagłębie Lubin might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Grzybek M. (Broken Leg) Orlikowski I. (Inactive)

There will not play in Korona: Nono (Red Card) Popov V. (Foot Injury) Resta P. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Zagłębie Lubin: Szafranek W. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 19:17. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Zagłębie Lubin won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1.1:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Korona Kielce - the odds 3.19 are the expected chance of winning is 29.06%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zagłębie Lubin
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.07.25	GKS Katowice - Zagłębie Lubin	2:2 ✺
19.07.25	Widzew Łódź - Zagłębie Lubin	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Chrobry Głogów	2:2 ✺
11.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	0:1 ✺
08.07.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Teplice	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TLTWT
- Korona Kielce
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.07.25	Korona Kielce - Legia Warsaw	0:2 ✺
19.07.25	Wisła Płock - Korona Kielce	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.25	Korona Kielce - Maccabi Netanya	0:1 ✺
09.07.25	Korona Kielce - Stal Rzeszów	4:4 ✺
05.07.25	Cracovia - Korona Kielce	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
16.03.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Korona Kielce	1:1
15.09.24	Korona Kielce - Zagłębie Lubin	2:0
03.03.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Korona Kielce	1:0
27.08.23	Korona Kielce - Zagłębie Lubin	2:0
23.04.23	Korona Kielce - Zagłębie Lubin	2:2
09.10.22	Zagłębie Lubin - Korona Kielce	1:1
26.06.20	Zagłębie Lubin - Korona Kielce	2:1

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