Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 26

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Motor Lublin Arena (Lublin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Sporty TV
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Sport 2
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	Motor Lublin		Zagłębie Lubin

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	3.4	Watch
	1.98	3.5	3.6
	2.05	3.4	3.35	Watch
	2.13	3.47	3.55
	2.09	3.51	3.51	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.4
	2.07	3.38	3.39	Watch
	2.28	3.19	2.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.3)	3.42 ↑ (3.16)	3.37 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Motor Lublin
45.2%

Draw
27.2%

Zagłębie Lubin
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

28.3%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

29.7%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Motor Lublin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Motor Lublin's performance.

Zagłębie Lubin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Zagłębie Lubin might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	31.2%	18.7%

Motor Lublin - Zagłębie Lubin Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Motor will win (votes: 8 - 50%). Zagłębie Lubin will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Motor: 25.5% – 74.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Zagłębie Lubin (2.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Brkic I. (G) 17. Wojcik F. 39. Bartos M. 3. Matthys H. 24. Luberecki F. 6. Samper S. 30. Ndiaye M. 7. Rodrigues I. 68. Wolski B. (C) 11. Fabio Ronaldo 9. Czubak K.	1. Buric J. (G) 16. Corluka J. 31. Orlikowski I. 4. Michalski D. 35. Lucic L. 8. Dabrowski D. (C) 18. Radwanski A. 7. Kowalczyk S. 39. Kocaba F. 27. Diaz J. 44. Regula M.
Substitutes
13. Brzozowski K. 42. Ede B. 23. Haxha F. 10. Karasek K. 26. Krol M. 21. Labojko J. 16. Lewandowski F. 2. Meyer P. 29. Santos T. 33. Tratnik G. (G) 19. van Hoeven B.	20. Dziewiatowski M. 12. Gikiewicz R. (G) 26. Kolan J. 9. Kosidis M. 84. Ligocki J. 88. Mlinaric M. 99. Popielec C. 19. Sypek J. 17. Szabo L. 94. Urbanski M. 11. Wozniak A.
Coaches
Stolarski M.	Ojrzynski L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 1 - 0, Ndiaye M. ⚽, Czubak K. (A),
62', Diaz J. ↓, Sypek J. ↑,
62', Kowalczyk S. ↓, Kolan J. ↑,
62', Radwanski A. ↓, Szabo L. ↑,
68', Samper S. ↓, Labojko J. ↑,
68', Fabio Ronaldo ↓, van Hoeven B. ↑,
76', Luberecki F. ↓, Ede B. ↑,
76', Kocaba F. ↓, Kosidis M. ↑,
76', Regula M. ↓, Mlinaric M. ↑,
86', Ndiaye M. ↓, Santos T. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Motor will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Motor: Dadashov R. (Yellow Cards) Plichta K. (Inactive) Scalet M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Hladun D. (Shoulder Injury) Lawniczak A. (Inactive) Nalepa M. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Motor: Najemski A. (Inactive) Ndiaye M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Zagłębie Lubin: Orlikowski I. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Motor won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Motor won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Zaglebie: 1.65% Motor Lublin: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Zaglebie	10	4	3	3	12:13	-1	15
16	Motor Lublin	9	1	3	5	9:15	-6	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Motor Lublin
Polish Ekstraklasa
13.03.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Motor Lublin	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	Motor Lublin - Górnik Zabrze	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Motor Lublin - Korona Kielce	2:0 ✺
20.02.26	Piast Gliwice - Motor Lublin	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Motor Lublin - Lechia Gdańsk	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WTWWL
- Zagłębie Lubin
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Piast Gliwice - Zagłębie Lubin	1:3 ✺
02.03.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Wisła Płock	2:0 ✺
23.02.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Zagłębie Lubin	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Raków Częstochowa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
21.09.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Motor Lublin	2:2
18.05.25	Motor Lublin - Zagłębie Lubin	1:0
22.11.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Motor Lublin	1:2
Polish Cup
19.10.22	Motor Lublin - Zagłębie Lubin	1:0 ET

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