Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 17

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: KGHM Zaglebie Arena (Lubin)

Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Zagłębie Lubin		Jagiellonia Białystok

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.4	2.05	Watch
	3.2	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.51	3.57	2.14
	2.82	3.61	2.34	Watch
	3.19	3.42	2.14	Watch
	3.4	3.5	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↑ (2.79)	3.48 ↑ (3.05)	2.14 ↓ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zagłębie Lubin
29.1%

Draw
26.9%

Jagiellonia Białystok
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

29.3%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

29.8%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Lubin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jagiellonia Białystok's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jagiellonia Białystok, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	7.7%	23.1%

Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Jagiellonia will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zagłębie Lubin: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Buric J. (G) 31. Orlikowski I. 4. Michalski D. 5. Lawniczak A. (C) 3. Yakuba R. 77. Szmyt K. 39. Kocaba F. 26. Kolan J. 35. Lucic L. 55. Rocha L. 44. Regula M.	50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 70. Pelmard A. 3. Stojinovic D. 27. Wdowik B. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 31. Flach L. 7. Pozo A. 11. Imaz J. 72. Jozwiak K. 10. Pululu A.
Substitutes
16. Corluka J. 27. Diaz J. 20. Dziewiatowski M. 12. Gikiewicz R. (G) 13. Grzybek M. 9. Kosidis M. 6. Makowski T. 71. Nowogonski K. 18. Radwanski A. 2. Sochan K. 19. Sypek J. 11. Wozniak A.	8. Drachal D. 25. Jackson A. 4. Kobayashi Y. 21. Lozano S. 86. Mazurek B. 22. Piekutowski M. (G) 80. Pietuszewski O. 5. Polak C. 18. Prip L. 9. Rallis D. 17. Sylla Y. 13. Vital B.
Coaches
Ojrzynski L.	Siemieniec A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Lucic L. 🟨,
39', Pelmard A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Jozwiak K. ↓, Pietuszewski O. ↑,
65', Flach L. ↓, Mazurek B. ↑,
66', Regula M. ↓, Sypek J. ↑,
66', Szmyt K. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
69', Mazurek B. 🟨,
75', Pozo A. ↓, Lozano S. ↑,
77', Lucic L. ↓, Radwanski A. ↑,
77', Rocha L. ↓, Kosidis M. ↑,
84', Wojtuszek N. 🟨,
85', Romanczuk T. ↓, Kobayashi Y. ↑,
85', Pululu A. ↓, Rallis D. ↑,
87', Radwanski A. 🟨,
88', Kolan J. ↓, Makowski T. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 2.

Zagłębie Lubin has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Jagiellonia is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Zagłębie Lubin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Zagłębie Lubin has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 27:26. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Zagłębie Lubin won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zagłębie Lubin
Polish Ekstraklasa
24.11.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Zagłębie Lubin	5:1 ✺
07.11.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Górnik Zabrze	2:0 ✺
03.11.25	Cracovia - Zagłębie Lubin	0:0 ✺
Polish Cup
29.10.25	Widzew Łódź - Zagłębie Lubin	1:0 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
24.10.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Zagłębie Lubin	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWTLT
- Jagiellonia Białystok
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - KuPS Kuopio	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.11.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	5:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
09.11.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Shkendija Tetovo - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.11.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
11.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	0:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.04.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	1:3
19.10.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:3
20.04.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2
20.10.23	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	3:0
18.03.23	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	2:2
04.09.22	Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1

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