Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 11

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: KGHM Zaglebie Arena (Lubin) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Przybyl J. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Canada	08:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	14:45	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	14:45	Oneplay, Strike, Strike
Poland	14:45	CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	08:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN Sports 5, beIN Sports US Espanol, beIN Sports XTRA, Tubi TV


	Zagłębie Lubin		Jagiellonia Białystok

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.5	2.55	Watch
	2.55	3.40	2.55
	2.55	3.4	2.45
	2.58	3.61	2.68
	2.57	3.64	2.61	Watch
	2.5	3.5	2.6
	2.5	3.48	2.51	Watch
	2.6	3.45	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (2.57)	3.5 ↑ (3.13)	2.55 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zagłębie Lubin
36.8%

Draw
26.7%

Jagiellonia Białystok
36.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.4%

28.3%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

26%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Lubin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Zagłębie Lubin (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.73) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Alomerovic Z. (G) 5. Lawniczak A. 25. Nalepa M. 3. Yakuba R. 13. Grzybek M. 39. Kocaba F. 8. Dabrowski D. (C) 16. Corluka J. 37. Kerk S. 44. Regula M. 18. Szymczak F.	50. Abramowicz S. (G) 3. Stojinovic D. 5. Vital B. 4. Kobayashi Y. 20. Wdowik B. 30. Sow O. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 19. Klynge A. 72. Jozwiak K. 11. Imaz J. 7. Szmyt K.
Substitutes
6. Colina D. 20. Dziewiatowski M. 30. Hladun D. (G) 26. Kolan J. 19. Lyczko S. 4. Michalski D. 88. Mlinaric M. 31. Orlikowski I. 99. Popielec C. 7. Sypek J. 11. Wozniak A.	10. Agbonifo J. 32. Cirkovic A. 27. Conceicao R. 8. Drachal D. 14. Finndell H. 44. Konstantopoulos A. 85. Kozlowski E. 70. Kucharski J. 23. Montoia G. 1. Perchel M. (G) 2. Polak C. 9. Rallis D.
Coaches
Ojrzynski L.	Siemieniec A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Grzybek M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Grzybek M. ↓, Colina D. ↑,
46', Wdowik B. ↓, Polak C. ↑,
46', Jozwiak K. ↓, Conceicao R. ↑,
62', Sow O. ↓, Rallis D. ↑,
63', Szymczak F. ↓, Sypek J. ↑,
69', Stojinovic D. ↓, Agbonifo J. ↑,
77', 1 - 0, Kerk S. (Penalty Awarded),
79', Vital B. 🟨,
83', Kerk S. ↓, Dziewiatowski M. ↑,
88', Vital B. ↓, Cirkovic A. ↑,
90+1', Sypek J. 🟨,
90+6', Corluka J. ↓, Michalski D. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 9th and 10th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Jagiellonia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Jagiellonia has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Zagłębie Lubin: Szabo L. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Jagiellonia: Prelec N. (Inactive) Wojtuszek N. (Inactive).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Zagłębie Lubin has recorded 7 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:24 (averaging 1.3:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Zagłębie Lubin against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with 11:13 goals (averaging 1.1:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Zaglebie	12	5	4	3	15:15	0	19
10	Jagiellonia	11	5	0	6	14:17	-3	15

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Jagiellonia: 1.96% Zaglebie: 1.93%

Last Results with these Odds

Zagłębie Lubin - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 34.42%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Jagiellonia Białystok - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 37.32%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zagłębie Lubin
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.10.26	Cracovia - Zagłębie Lubin	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Miedź Legnica	1:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Wisła Płock	0:2 ✺
15.09.26	Raków Częstochowa - Zagłębie Lubin	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Zagłębie Lubin - GKS Katowice	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 LWLWW
- Jagiellonia Białystok
UEFA Europa League
15.10.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Ararat-Armenia	3:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.10.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Górnik Zabrze	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Polonia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
29.09.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Sūduva Marijampolė	5:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Legia Warsaw	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
23.05.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	1:0
30.11.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0
Club Friendly
11.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	0:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.04.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	1:3
19.10.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:3
20.04.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2
20.10.23	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	3:0

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