Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Chorten Arena (Bialystok) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Papapetrou A. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	16:00	Disney+
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Australia	06:00	Stan Sport
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	16:00	Disney+
Colombia	14:00	Disney+
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Estonia	22:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Finland	22:00	Viaplay
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 14
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Lithuania	22:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect
Mexico	13:00	Disney+
New Zealand	08:00	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	21:00	Viaplay
Peru	14:00	Disney+
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Extra 4, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	20:00	DAZN / App
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 3
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 11, Blue Sport 11
Thailand	02:00	beIN Connect
Turkey	22:00	Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 14
United Kingdom	20:00	HBO Max
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Ararat-Armenia

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.50	6.50
	1.46	4.75	6.50
	1.43	4.80	7.50
	1.46	5.03	6.87
	1.46	4.76	6.5	Watch
	1.42	5.00	6.75
	1.50	4.60	6.33
	1.40	4.90	7.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.43)	4.79 ↑ (4.75)	6.74 ↓ (7.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
65.9%

Draw
19.9%

Ararat-Armenia
14.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

66.6%

20%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

19.9%

13.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Ararat-Armenia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ararat-Armenia than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Ararat Armenia Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.71) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Jagiellonia (1.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jagiellonia Białystok will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Abramowicz S. (G) 27. Conceicao R. 5. Vital B. 4. Kobayashi Y. 20. Wdowik B. 19. Klynge A. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 11. Imaz J. 72. Jozwiak K. 30. Sow O. 7. Szmyt K.	98. Joao Bravim (G) 2. Oliveira H. 43. Wilson Valdez B. R. 5. Luis Felipe 16. Grigoryan E. 8. Balanta J. A. 17. Carlier M. 20. Tera A. (C) 77. Serobyan A. 91. Sandro Lima 11. Banjaqui Z.
Substitutes
10. Agbonifo J. 32. Cirkovic A. 14. Finndell H. 44. Konstantopoulos A. 85. Kozlowski E. 21. Lozano S. 23. Montoia G. 1. Perchel M. (G) 3. Stojinovic D.	10. Ambartsumyan A. 70. Benny 9. Eloyan A. 95. Franca Carlos 47. Malis A. 19. Muradyan K. 25. Ndour A. 1. Nersesyan A. (G) 14. Pereira B. 7. Shaghoyan Z.
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Tulipa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Banjaqui Z. ⚽, Carlier M. (A),
13', 1 - 1, Jozwiak K. ⚽,
17', Banjaqui Z. ↓, Shaghoyan Z. ↑,
20', Romanczuk T. 🟨,
30', Wilson Valdez B. R. 🟨,
38', 2 - 1, Conceicao R. ⚽, Klynge A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Tulipa 🟨,
51', 3 - 1, Sow O. ⚽, Imaz J. (A),
57', Tera A. 🟨,
66', Sow O. ↓, Agbonifo J. ↑,
68', Tera A. ↓, Benny ↑,
68', Imaz J. ↓, Kozlowski E. ↑,
68', Jozwiak K. ↓, Stojinovic D. ↑,
68', Luis Felipe ↓, Muradyan K. ↑,
76', Serobyan A. ↓, Franca Carlos ↑,
76', Sandro Lima ↓, Eloyan A. ↑,
79', Szmyt K. ↓, Cirkovic A. ↑,
80', Romanczuk T. ↓, Lozano S. ↑,
83', Stojinovic D. 🟨,
84', Kozlowski E. 🟨,

Preview

Jagiellonia is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Ararat-Armenia shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Jagiellonia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Jagiellonia has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.

In this match, Jagiellonia enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Confirmed absences for Jagiellonia: Drachal D. (Off the roster) Polak C. (Off the roster) Rallis D. (Off the roster) Wojtuszek N. (Inactive) Zalewski Z. (Off the roster).

Confirmed absences for Ararat-Armenia: Ayongo P. (Off the roster).

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
27	Jagiellonia	3	1	0	2	4:6	-2	3
36	Ararat-Armenia	3	0	0	3	2:11	-9	0

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Jagiellonia: 0.35% Ararat-Armenia: 0.11%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.10.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Górnik Zabrze	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Polonia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
29.09.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Sūduva Marijampolė	5:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Legia Warsaw	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLWLL
- FC Ararat-Armenia
Armenian Premier League
10.10.26	Ararat-Armenia - Alashkert	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Shirak Gyumri - Ararat-Armenia	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Ararat-Armenia - Sparta Prague	1:4 ✺
Armenian Premier League
11.09.26	Ararat-Armenia - Syunik	3:0 ✺
05.09.26	Ararat - Ararat-Armenia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TWLWW

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