Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 5

Date: 15 August 2025, Friday

Location: KGHM Zaglebie Arena (Lubin)

Referee: Frankowski B. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Ukraine	Sport 2
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	Zagłębie Lubin		Lechia Gdańsk

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.6	2.88	Watch
	2.4	3.5	2.7
	2.25	3.6	2.78	Watch
	2.36	4	2.94
	2.57	3.51	2.57	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.7
	2.28	3.7	2.84	Watch
	2.2	3.6	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.2)	3.6 ↑ (3.2)	2.8 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zagłębie Lubin
40.4%

Draw
26.1%

Lechia Gdańsk
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

28.8%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

27.7%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Lubin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Lechia Gdańsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lechia Gdańsk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	41.7%	16.7%

Zagłębie Lubin - Lechia Gdańsk Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Lechia will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lechia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 85.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH 0 - Lechia (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Lechia (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.30) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Lechia (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Hladun D. (G) 27. Kludka B. 3. Yakuba R. 5. Lawniczak A. 25. Nalepa M. 19. Sypek J. 8. Dabrowski D. (C) 39. Kocaba F. 44. Regula M. 18. Radwanski A. 9. Kosidis M.	1. Weirauch S. (G) 16. Jaunzems A. 5. Zhelizko I. 15. Dyachuk M. 27. Vojtko M. 11. Mena C. 10. Kapic R. (C) 99. Neugebauer T. 79. Sezonienko K. 90. Kurminowski D. 7. Viunnyk B.
Substitutes
1. Buric J. (G) 16. Corluka J. 20. Dziewiatowski M. 26. Kolan J. 35. Lucic L. 6. Makowski T. 4. Michalski D. 71. Nowogonski K. 99. Popielec C. 77. Szmyt K. 17. Wdowiak M. 11. Wozniak A.	72. Awad M. 89. Bobcek T. 26. Brzek B. 21. Glogowski M. 81. Gutowski K. (G) 23. Kalahur M. 6. Wendt K. 33. Wojtowicz T.
Coaches
Ojrzynski L.	Carver J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Kludka B. ⚽, Dabrowski D. (A),
15', 2 - 0, Radwanski A. ⚽,
35', 2 - 1, Vojtko M. ⚽, Kapic R. (A),
2nd Half (4 - 1)
46', Sezonienko K. ↓, Awad M. ↑,
46', Kurminowski D. ↓, Bobcek T. ↑,
46', Viunnyk B. ↓, Glogowski M. ↑,
57', 2 - 2, Awad M. ⚽, Mena C. (A),
61', 3 - 2, Yakuba R. (Pen),
65', 4 - 2, Sypek J. ⚽, Kosidis M. (A),
72', Radwanski A. ↓, Wdowiak M. ↑,
72', Sypek J. ↓, Lucic L. ↑,
72', Regula M. ↓, Szmyt K. ↑,
73', Neugebauer T. ↓, Kalahur M. ↑,
73', Jaunzems A. ↓, Wojtowicz T. ↑,
80', Kludka B. ↓, Corluka J. ↑,
84', 5 - 2, Szmyt K. ⚽, Dabrowski D. (A),
90+2', 6 - 2, Nalepa M. ⚽, Dabrowski D. (A),
90+2', Kosidis M. ↓, Popielec C. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Lechia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Zagłębie Lubin will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Grzybek M. (Broken Leg) Orlikowski I. (Inactive)

There will not play in Lechia: Pllana B. (Inactive) Sarnavskyi B. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Zagłębie Lubin: Corluka J. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 27:35. (average 1.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Zagłębie Lubin won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:18. (average 1.3:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Zagłębie Lubin - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 41.91%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zagłębie Lubin
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.08.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Korona Kielce	1:1 ✺
28.07.25	GKS Katowice - Zagłębie Lubin	2:2 ✺
19.07.25	Widzew Łódź - Zagłębie Lubin	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Chrobry Głogów	2:2 ✺
11.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TTLTW
- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Ekstraklasa
11.08.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Motor Lublin	3:3 ✺
03.08.25	Cracovia - Lechia Gdańsk	2:2 ✺
26.07.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Lech Poznań	3:4 ✺
20.07.25	Górnik Zabrze - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
13.07.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Chojniczanka Chojnice	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
17.02.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Lechia Gdańsk	1:3
11.08.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Zagłębie Lubin	1:1
06.05.23	Lechia Gdańsk - Zagłębie Lubin	1:3
24.10.22	Zagłębie Lubin - Lechia Gdańsk	0:3
30.04.22	Zagłębie Lubin - Lechia Gdańsk	2:2
06.11.21	Lechia Gdańsk - Zagłębie Lubin	2:1
05.04.21	Lechia Gdańsk - Zagłębie Lubin	3:1

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