Match Info

TURKEY: SUPER LIG - ROUND 34

Date: 17 May 2023, Wednesday

Location: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium (Istanbul)

Referee: Pakkan B. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Sport 2
France	beIN Sports Max
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Turkey	beIN Sports 1


	İstanbul Başakşehir		Umraniyespor

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.75	4	Watch
	1.82	3.8	3.8
	1.74	3.9	4.1
	1.86	4.04	4.08
	1.78	3.8	4
	1.78	3.98	4.1	Watch
	1.8	3.9	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.67)	3.88 ↑ (3.81)	4 ↓ (4.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

İstanbul Başakşehir
52.3%

Draw
24.2%

Umraniyespor
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56%

24.6%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

18.9%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

İstanbul Başakşehir has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Umraniyespor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for İstanbul Başakşehir than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with İstanbul Başakşehir that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Umraniyespor than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	17.9%	3.6%

İstanbul Başakşehir - Umraniyespor Predictions

Users Predictions: İstanbul Başakşehir will win (22 of 28 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 63.37% – 93.77%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 5 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 1. Lig).

Başakşehir has the most likely position - 5 (61.07%), project points - 58, currently - 48, not chance of relegated, not chance of qualify for ucl.

Umraniyespor has the most likely position - 17 (42.55%), project points - 33, currently - 26, a good chance of relegated (88%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 40, small importance 23, match rating 31. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Başakşehir is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Umraniyespor is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Başakşehir could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Başakşehir is a favorite.

There are questionable in Başakşehir: Karzev E. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Umraniyespor: Kayra Yilmaz K. (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Başakşehir won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Başakşehir won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- İstanbul Başakşehir
Turkish Super League
08.05.23	Galatasaray - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
04.05.23	İstanbul Başakşehir - Ankaragücü	1:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
24.04.23	Giresunspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	2:4 ✺
19.04.23	İstanbul Başakşehir - Fenerbahçe	1:2 ✺
15.04.23	İstanbulspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWWLL
- Umraniyespor
Turkish Super League
07.05.23	Umraniyespor - Sivasspor	4:1 ✺
28.04.23	Alanyaspor - Umraniyespor	1:0 ✺
22.04.23	Umraniyespor - Beşiktaş	0:2 ✺
18.04.23	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Umraniyespor	4:2 ✺
10.04.23	Kayserispor - Umraniyespor	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
23.12.22	Umraniyespor - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:3
Turkish Cup
05.11.14	İstanbul Başakşehir - Umraniyespor	3:1 ET

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