Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadion pod Dubnom (MSK Zilina) (Žilina)

Referee: Wolfensberger S. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	TVP Sport
Slovakia	STVR Sport
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Žilina		GKS Katowice

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.4	2.15	Watch
	2.50	3.30	2.55
	2.92	3.35	2.22	Watch
	2.96	3.68	2.28
	2.7	3.49	2.46	Watch
	2.8	3.6	2.2
	3.03	3.58	2.26	Watch
	2.85	3.45	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.36)	3.48 ↑ (3.25)	2.3 ↓ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Žilina
32.9%

Draw
26.7%

GKS Katowice
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

28%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

29.1%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Žilina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Žilina's form might have worsened.

GKS Katowice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting GKS Katowice's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Žilina than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Žilina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for GKS Katowice than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for GKS Katowice, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35%	30%	35%

Žilina - GKS Katowice Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Žilina will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). GKS Katowice will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 27.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Žilina: 16.4% – 61.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Badzgon J. (G) 33. Paliscak T. 17. Minarik J. 28. Narimanidze A. 21. Hranica T. 11. Bzdyl F. 66. Kacer M. (C) 20. Bari K. 7. Kosa F. 95. Roginic M. 16. Ilko P.	87. Kobylak G. (G) 30. Czerwinski A. 4. Jedrych A. (C) 6. Klemenz L. 23. Wasielewski M. 5. Bosch J. 22. Milewski S. 8. Galan B. 10. Wedrychowski M. 27. Nowak B. 17. Shkurin I.
Substitutes
6. Adang X. 9. Baleja P. 24. Datko S. 23. Fasko M. 10. Florea A. 90. Homet Ruiz D. 25. Kasa F. 2. Okal M. 34. Prokop L. 31. Sipos D. (G) 14. Svoboda M. 26. Tarcsi T. (G)	31. Bartlewicz S. 97. Jirka E. 1. Kikolski M. (G) 21. Kokosinski J. 19. Lukasiak K. 15. Markovic E. 14. Olsen M. 55. Resta P. 25. Trepka L. 7. Wdowiak M. 68. Wolski B. 99. Zrelak A.
Coaches
Stano P.	Gorak R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Klemenz L. ⚽, Nowak B. (A),
22', Roginic M. 🟨,
29', 1 - 1, Kacer M. (Penalty Awarded),
42', Minarik J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 2 - 1, Hranica T. ⚽, Kosa F. (A),
58', Wedrychowski M. ↓, Markovic E. ↑,
58', Milewski S. ↓, Lukasiak K. ↑,
58', Shkurin I. ↓, Zrelak A. ↑,
59', Markovic E. 🟨,
62', Stano P. 🟨,
64', Badzgon J. 🟨,
64', Jedrych A. 🟨,
67', Ilko P. ↓, Fasko M. ↑,
73', Bosch J. ↓, Wolski B. ↑,
74', Kacer M. ↓, Adang X. ↑,
74', Roginic M. ↓, Prokop L. ↑,
82', Bzdyl F. ↓, Florea A. ↑,
82', Kosa F. ↓, Datko S. ↑,
84', Nowak B. ↓, Bartlewicz S. ↑,
90', Bari K. 🟨,
90+4', Czerwinski A. 🟨,
90+4', Florea A. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Žilina has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

GKS Katowice is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, GKS Katowice has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Žilina - the odds 2.36 are the expected chance of winning is 38.62%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

GKS Katowice - the odds 2.73 are the expected chance of winning is 33.38%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MSK Žilina
UEFA Europa League
16.07.26	Žilina - Hajduk Split	2:1 ✺
09.07.26	Hajduk Split - Žilina	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.07.26	Pardubice - Žilina	2:2 ✺
24.06.26	Dynamo Kyiv - Žilina	2:0 ✺
20.06.26	Žilina - Opava	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLTLT
- GKS Katowice
Club Friendly
16.07.26	GKS Katowice - Raków Częstochowa	1:1 ✺
11.07.26	GKS Katowice - Stal Rzeszów	3:1 ✺
01.07.26	GKS Katowice - Miedź Legnica	2:0 ✺
01.07.26	GKS Katowice - Piast Gliwice	0:1 ✺
28.06.26	GKS Katowice - Arka Gdynia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TWWLW

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