Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday


	Ajla Tomljanovic		Jasmine Paolini

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.45	1.53
	2.55	1.52	Watch
	2.64	1.55
	2.44	1.56	Watch
	2.5	1.53
	2.51	1.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (2.75)	1.54 ↑ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajla Tomljanovic
37.9%

Jasmine Paolini
62.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

65.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

68.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajla Tomljanovic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Jasmine Paolini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajla Tomljanovic than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ajla Tomljanovic that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jasmine Paolini than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jasmine Paolini could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	0%	58.3%

Ajla Tomljanovic - Jasmine Paolini Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Tomljanovic will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Paolini will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paolini: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tomljanovic (votes: 1 - 50%). Paolini (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Tomljanovic (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tomljanovic (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Paolini (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tomljanovic is ranked WTA: 85. Paolini is ranked WTA: 7.

Tomljanovic is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Paolini has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Paolini may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Paolini might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tomljanovic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajla Tomljanovic
WTA Indian Wells
06.03.26	Xin Yu Wang - Ajla Tomljanovic	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	Ajla Tomljanovic - Elena Gabriela Ruse	2:0 ✺
WTA Austin
27.02.26	Kimberly Birrell - Ajla Tomljanovic	2:0 ✺
26.02.26	Ajla Tomljanovic - Iva Jovic	2:1 ✺
24.02.26	Venus Williams - Ajla Tomljanovic	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WWLWW
- Jasmine Paolini
WTA Indian Wells
06.03.26	Anastasia Potapova - Jasmine Paolini	1:2 ✺
WTA Merida
28.02.26	Jasmine Paolini - Cristina Bucsa	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Jasmine Paolini - Katie Boulter	2:1 ✺
26.02.26	Jasmine Paolini - Priscilla Hon	2:0 ✺
WTA Dubai
17.02.26	Alexandra Eala - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Roland Garros
28.05.25	Jasmine Paolini - Ajla Tomljanovic	2:0

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