Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Metepec, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 18 February 2026, Wednesday


	Alafia Ayeni		Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

	1	2
	4	1.22	Watch
	3.65	1.24	Watch
	3.79	1.28
	4.39	1.18	Watch
	3.75	1.25	Watch
	3.49	1.26	Watch
	3.66	1.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.82 ↑ (2.96)	1.24 ↓ (1.35)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alafia Ayeni
24.5%

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
75.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

68.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

71.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alafia Ayeni has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alafia Ayeni's form might have worsened.

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alafia Ayeni than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Alafia Ayeni - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pacheco Mendez (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ayeni is ranked ATP: 608. Pacheco Mendez is ranked ATP: 228.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Pacheco Mendez may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Pacheco Mendez is seen as the favorite.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alafia Ayeni
ATP Challenger
17.02.26	Dan Martin - Alafia Ayeni	Martin D. retired ✺
16.02.26	Alafia Ayeni - Amit Vales	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Alafia Ayeni - Patricio Betancourt	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
08.02.26	Alafia Ayeni - Braden Shick	0:2 ✺
07.02.26	Alafia Ayeni - Stefan Cooper	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 ?WWLW
- Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
ATP Challenger
17.02.26	Guillaume Dalmasso - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
08.02.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Stefanos Sakellaridis - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
28.01.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Luca Nardi	0:2 ✺
23.01.26	Edas Butvilas - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLWLL

Alafia Ayeni - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide