Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Almaty, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 October 2025, Thursday


	Aleksandar Vukic		Alex Michelsen

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
			Watch
	2.44	1.54	Watch
	2.86	1.47
	3.23	1.35	Watch
	2.44	1.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.18)	1.48 ↓ (1.69)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aleksandar Vukic
35.4%

Alex Michelsen
64.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

56.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

55.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aleksandar Vukic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aleksandar Vukic's form might have worsened.

Alex Michelsen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alex Michelsen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aleksandar Vukic than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aleksandar Vukic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alex Michelsen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	0%	77.8%

Aleksandar Vukic - Alex Michelsen Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Vukic will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Michelsen will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Michelsen: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Vukic (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Michelsen (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 Games - Vukic (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 22.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Vukic (votes: 2 - 50%). Michelsen (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Vukic is ranked ATP: 84. Michelsen is ranked ATP: 36.

Vukic has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Michelsen has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Michelsen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Michelsen might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Vukic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Alex Michelsen - the odds 1.69 are the expected chance of winning is 56.33%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aleksandar Vukic
ATP Almaty
14.10.25	Aleksandar Vukic - Marko Topo	2:1 ✺
ATP Shanghai
04.10.25	Nuno Borges - Aleksandar Vukic	2:0 ✺
30.09.25	Aleksandar Vukic - Yoshihito Nishioka	0:2 ✺
29.09.25	Aleksandar Vukic - Marc-Andrea Huesler	2:1 ✺
29.09.25	Aleksandar Vukic - Lloyd Harris	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLLW?
- Alex Michelsen
ATP Almaty
15.10.25	Beibit Zhukayev - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
04.10.25	Arthur Rinderknech - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
ATP Tokyo
25.09.25	Alex Michelsen - Ethan Quinn	0:2 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
19.09.25	Jakub Mensik - Alex Michelsen	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
25.08.25	Francisco Comesana - Alex Michelsen	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
13.06.23	Alex Michelsen - Aleksandar Vukic	2:1
03.03.23	Aleksandar Vukic - Alex Michelsen	0:2

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