Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 27 April 2024, Saturday

Referee: Murphy F. (Irl)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	Eurosport 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Poland	Polsat Sport News
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	Alex De Minaur		Rafael Nadal

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.62	2.25
	1.63	2.42
	1.63	2.43
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.63	2.32	Watch
	1.7	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.83)	2.32 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex De Minaur
58.5%

Rafael Nadal
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alex De Minaur's performance.

Rafael Nadal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rafael Nadal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alex De Minaur that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rafael Nadal than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rafael Nadal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
48.2%	0%	51.8%

Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal Predictions

Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. De Minaur will win (votes: 27 - 48.2%). Nadal will win (votes: 29 - 51.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nadal: 38.7% – 64.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches De Minaur won 2.

One and the other player get a very uncertain game.

Nadal could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

De Minaur will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches De Minaur won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex De Minaur
ATP Barcelona
18.04.24	Alex De Minaur - Arthur Fils	0:2 ✺
17.04.24	Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
12.04.24	Novak Djokovic - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
11.04.24	Alex De Minaur - Alexei Popyrin	2:0 ✺
10.04.24	Alex De Minaur - Tallon Griekspoor	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWLWW
- Rafael Nadal
ATP Madrid
25.04.24	Darwin Blanch - Rafael Nadal	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
17.04.24	Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal	2:0 ✺
16.04.24	Flavio Cobolli - Rafael Nadal	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.24	Milos Raonic - Rafael Nadal	Canceled ✺
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
03.03.24	Rafael Nadal - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLW?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP Barcelona
17.04.24	Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal	2:0
ATP United Cup
02.01.23	Rafael Nadal - Alex De Minaur	1:2
ATP Cup
02.02.21	Rafael Nadal - Alex De Minaur	Canceled
11.01.20	Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal	1:2
ATP Australian Open
18.01.19	Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal	0:2
ATP Wimbledon
07.07.18	Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal	0:3

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