Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 27 April 2024, Saturday

Referee: Nour A. (Egy)


	Alexander Bublik		Roberto Carballes Baena

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.7	1.45
	2.95	1.45
	2.95	1.46
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	3.13	1.37	Watch
	2.95	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.45)	1.42 ↓ (1.51)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Bublik
32.6%

Roberto Carballes Baena
67.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

61.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

63.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Bublik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alexander Bublik's form might have worsened.

Roberto Carballes Baena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Roberto Carballes Baena's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.3%	0%	64.7%

Alexander Bublik - Roberto Carballes Baena Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Bublik will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Carballes Baena will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carballes Baena: 42% – 87.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bublik is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Carballes Baena is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Bublik could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Carballes Baena is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Bublik
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.24	Alexander Bublik - Borna Coric	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.24	Alexander Bublik - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
10.03.24	Alexander Bublik - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
08.03.24	Alexander Bublik - Juncheng Shang	2:0 ✺
ATP Dubai
02.03.24	Ugo Humbert - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLLWL
- Roberto Carballes Baena
ATP Madrid
25.04.24	Dominik Koepfer - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
18.04.24	Roberto Carballes Baena - Stefanos Tsitsipas	0:2 ✺
17.04.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2 ✺
16.04.24	Hugo Grenier - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2 ✺
ATP Marrakech
07.04.24	Roberto Carballes Baena - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLWWL

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