Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: MIAMI (USA), HARD - 1/32-FINALS

Date: 23 March 2024, Saturday


	Alexander Bublik		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.78	2	Watch
	1.78	2.05	Watch
	1.79	2.1
	1.79	2.1
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.76	2.07	Watch
	1.74	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.91)	2.08 ↑ (1.91)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Bublik
54.1%

Matteo Arnaldi
45.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

49.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Alexander Bublik - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 44 users predict this event. Bublik will win (votes: 33 - 75%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 11 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bublik: 62.2% – 87.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Two players are playing changeable.

Arnaldi could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Bublik
ATP Indian Wells
10.03.24	Alexander Bublik - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
08.03.24	Alexander Bublik - Juncheng Shang	2:0 ✺
ATP Dubai
02.03.24	Ugo Humbert - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
01.03.24	Alexander Bublik - Andrey Rublev	Bublik A. awarded ✺
29.02.24	Alexander Bublik - Jiri Lehecka	Bublik A. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWL??
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Miami
20.03.24	Arthur Fils - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2 ✺
06.03.24	Luca Van Assche - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
ATP Acapulco
28.02.24	Ben Shelton - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
26.02.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Taylor Harry Fritz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WLWLW

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