Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Umag (Croatia), clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 July 2024, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV6
Romania	Digi Sport 4


	Alexandre Muller		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.75	1.44
	2.7	1.44	Watch
	2.6	1.54
	2.8	1.46	Watch
	2.6	1.5	Watch
	2.78	1.45	Watch
	2.5	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.35)	1.47 ↓ (1.59)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexandre Muller
35.4%

Matteo Arnaldi
64.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

59.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

58.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexandre Muller has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexandre Muller than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alexandre Muller, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Alexandre Muller - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: Matteo Arnaldi will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Recent matches Muller is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Arnaldi is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Arnaldi could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Arnaldi will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Muller won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexandre Muller
ATP Umag
20.07.24	Alexandre Muller - Guido Andreozzi	Canceled ✺
ATP Bastad
16.07.24	Denis Yevseyev - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
03.07.24	Alexandre Muller - Daniil Medvedev	1:3 ✺
01.07.24	Alexandre Muller - Hugo Gaston	3:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
18.06.24	Jesper De Jong - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 ?LLWL
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Hamburg
15.07.24	Pedro Martinez Portero - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Francis Tiafoe	2:3 ✺
ATP London
19.06.24	Rinky Hijikata - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
18.06.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Ugo Humbert	2:1 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
02.06.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Stefanos Tsitsipas	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
30.05.24	Alexandre Muller - Matteo Arnaldi	0:3

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