Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Maia, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 27 November 2025, Thursday


	Alexey Vatutin		Henrique Rocha

	1	2
	3.75	1.25	Watch
	3.7	1.29
	3.94	1.22	Watch
			Watch
	3.41	1.27	Watch
	3.66	1.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.69 ↑ (2.75)	1.26 ↓ (1.43)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexey Vatutin
25.4%

Henrique Rocha
74.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

65.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

67.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexey Vatutin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alexey Vatutin's form might have worsened.

Henrique Rocha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Henrique Rocha's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexey Vatutin than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alexey Vatutin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Henrique Rocha than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Henrique Rocha, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Alexey Vatutin - Henrique Rocha Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Vatutin is ranked ATP: 413. Rocha is ranked ATP: 155.

Vatutin has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Rocha is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Rocha may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Rocha is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Rocha will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Henrique Rocha - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 65.79%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexey Vatutin
ATP Challenger
25.11.25	Alexey Vatutin - Franco Agamenone	2:1 ✺
24.11.25	Alexey Vatutin - Carlos Lopez Montagud	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Alexey Vatutin - Tomas Luis	2:0 ✺
19.11.25	Mark Lajal - Alexey Vatutin	2:1 ✺
17.11.25	Alexey Vatutin - Andrea Guerrieri	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLWLL
- Henrique Rocha
ATP Challenger
25.11.25	Gastao Elias - Henrique Rocha	1:2 ✺
08.11.25	Henrique Rocha - Sho Shimabukuro	2:1 ✺
07.11.25	Henrique Rocha - Frederico Ferreira Silva	2:0 ✺
06.11.25	Henrique Rocha - Rio Noguchi	2:1 ✺
04.11.25	Henrique Rocha - Renta Tokuda	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWWWW

Alexey Vatutin - Henrique Rocha: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide