Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Maia, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 27 November 2025, Thursday


	Andres Santamarta Roig		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	3.4	1.3	Watch
	3.76	1.28
	7.15	1.07	Watch
			Watch
	3.27	1.29	Watch
	3.2	1.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.16 ↑ (2.5)	1.25 ↓ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andres Santamarta Roig
23.2%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
76.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

62.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

63.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andres Santamarta Roig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Andres Santamarta Roig's form might have worsened.

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Daniel Merida Aguilar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andres Santamarta Roig than the current prediction. (+13.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Andres Santamarta Roig, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-13.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daniel Merida Aguilar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Andres Santamarta Roig - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Santamarta Roig is ranked ATP: 674. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 170.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Merida Aguilar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Merida Aguilar could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 62.5%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andres Santamarta Roig
ATP Challenger
26.11.25	Andres Santamarta Roig - Francisco Rocha	2:0 ✺
24.11.25	Andres Santamarta Roig - Stefan Palosi	2:1 ✺
23.11.25	Raul Brancaccio - Andres Santamarta Roig	Brancaccio R. retired ✺
20.11.25	Andres Santamarta Roig - Andrej Nedic	0:2 ✺
18.11.25	Geoffrey Blancaneaux - Andres Santamarta Roig	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WW?LW
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
26.11.25	Gianluca Cadenasso - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
20.11.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Gabriele Piraino	1:2 ✺
17.11.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Alberto Garcia Garcia	2:0 ✺
21.10.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Michael Geerts	1:2 ✺
ATP Brussels
12.10.25	Valentin Royer - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLWLL

Andres Santamarta Roig - Daniel Merida Aguilar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide