Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Perugia, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 June 2026, Monday


	Gianluca Cadenasso		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.25	1.55	Watch
	2.35	1.72
	2.22	1.58	Watch
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.31	1.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.25)	1.61 ↑ (1.56)

The best margin for this event is 0.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gianluca Cadenasso
41.6%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
58.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

59.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

58.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gianluca Cadenasso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gianluca Cadenasso than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	0%	81.8%

Gianluca Cadenasso - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Cadenasso (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Merida Aguilar (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Users Predictions: Daniel Merida Aguilar will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Cadenasso is ranked ATP: 196. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 86.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Cadenasso may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Merida Aguilar will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Cadenasso won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Gianluca Cadenasso - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 40.94%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gianluca Cadenasso
ATP Roland Garros
20.05.26	Gianluca Cadenasso - Leandro Riedi	1:2 ✺
19.05.26	Liam Broady - Gianluca Cadenasso	0:2 ✺
ATP Roma
07.05.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Gianluca Cadenasso	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
02.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Gianluca Cadenasso	2:1 ✺
01.05.26	Gianluca Cadenasso - Jesper De Jong	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWLLW
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Roland Garros
25.05.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Ben Shelton	0:3 ✺
ATP Challenger
13.05.26	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1 ✺
ATP Roma
07.05.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1 ✺
05.05.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	2:1 ✺
04.05.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Mackenzie McDonald	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
26.11.25	Gianluca Cadenasso - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2

Gianluca Cadenasso - Daniel Merida Aguilar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide