Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Hamburg, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Michael Geerts

	1	2
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.55	2.29
	1.53	2.56
	1.17	4.25	Watch
	1.54	2.39	Watch
	1.63	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.18)	2.67 ↓ (4.38)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
64.1%

Michael Geerts
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

78.8%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Daniel Merida Aguilar's form might have worsened.

Michael Geerts has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Michael Geerts's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.7%	0%	77.3%

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Michael Geerts Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). Geerts will win (votes: 17 - 77.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Geerts: 59.8% – 94.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Michael Geerts will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 163. Geerts is ranked ATP: 321.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Merida Aguilar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Merida Aguilar is considered a favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Brussels
12.10.25	Valentin Royer - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
07.10.25	Sumit Nagal - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Hugo Grenier	0:2 ✺
03.10.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - George Loffhagen	2:1 ✺
01.10.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Maks Kasnikowski	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLLWW
- Michael Geerts
ATP Challenger
14.10.25	Michael Geerts - Robert Strombachs	Canceled ✺
10.10.25	Antoine Escoffier - Michael Geerts	2:1 ✺
08.10.25	Michael Geerts - Charles Broom	2:0 ✺
07.10.25	Ioannis Xilas - Michael Geerts	0:2 ✺
15.09.25	Michael Geerts - Luca Potenza	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 ?LWWL

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Michael Geerts: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide