Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Winnipeg, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday


	August Holmgren		Liam Draxl

	1	2
	2.10	1.65
	2.05	1.69
	2.16	1.73
	1.85	1.85	Watch
	2.12	1.71
	2.02	1.69	Watch
	2	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.06)	1.72 ↑ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

August Holmgren
45.7%

Liam Draxl
54.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

55.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

62.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

August Holmgren has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Liam Draxl has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for August Holmgren than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with August Holmgren that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liam Draxl than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Liam Draxl could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

August Holmgren - Liam Draxl Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Holmgren will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Draxl will win (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Holmgren is ranked ATP: 227. Draxl is ranked ATP: 244.

Holmgren is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Draxl has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Holmgren won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

August Holmgren - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 44.62%, but this team recently wins 53% of matches with these odds.

Liam Draxl - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 55.38%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- August Holmgren
ATP Challenger
21.07.26	August Holmgren - Garrett Johns	2:1 ✺
19.07.26	Aleksandar Vukic - August Holmgren	2:1 ✺
17.07.26	August Holmgren - Justin Boulais	2:0 ✺
15.07.26	August Holmgren - Aidan Mayo	2:0 ✺
14.07.26	August Holmgren - Yosuke Watanuki	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWWW
- Liam Draxl
ATP Challenger
21.07.26	Millen Hurrion - Liam Draxl	0:2 ✺
17.07.26	Liam Draxl - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
16.07.26	Liam Draxl - Daniel Milavsky	2:0 ✺
15.07.26	Liam Draxl - James Kent Trotter	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
10.07.26	Liam Draxl - Keegan Rice	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
20.07.25	August Holmgren - Liam Draxl	2:0

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