Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Segovia, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 24 July 2025, Thursday


	Aziz Dougaz		Nicolas Alvarez Varona

	1	2
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.1	1.65
	2.12	1.64
	2.25	1.65
	2.22	1.63	Watch
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.18	1.64	Watch
	1.8	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.87)	1.66 ↓ (1.86)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aziz Dougaz
43.7%

Nicolas Alvarez Varona
56.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

50.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

52.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aziz Dougaz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aziz Dougaz's form might have worsened.

Nicolas Alvarez Varona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nicolas Alvarez Varona's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aziz Dougaz than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nicolas Alvarez Varona than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Aziz Dougaz - Nicolas Alvarez Varona Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Dougaz is ranked ATP: 225. Alvarez Varona is ranked ATP: 298.

Dougaz has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Alvarez Varona's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Dougaz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Nicolas Alvarez Varona - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 50.07%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aziz Dougaz
ATP Challenger
22.07.25	Aziz Dougaz - Robin Catry	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
20.07.25	Aziz Dougaz - Cyril Vandermeersch	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Aziz Dougaz - Yanki Erel	Erel Y. walkover ✺
18.07.25	Aziz Dougaz - Wissam Abderrahman	2:0 ✺
17.07.25	Aziz Dougaz - Isaac Becroft	Becroft I. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WW?W?
- Nicolas Alvarez Varona
ATP Challenger
22.07.25	Fajing Sun - Nicolas Alvarez Varona	0:2 ✺
14.07.25	Rafael Jodar - Nicolas Alvarez Varona	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
05.07.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Florian Broska	1:2 ✺
04.07.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Sandro Kopp	2:0 ✺
03.07.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Lucas Gerch	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLLWW

Aziz Dougaz - Nicolas Alvarez Varona: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide