Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Acapulco (Mexico), hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 February 2025, Tuesday


	Benjamin Bonzi		Brandon Nakashima

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.7	1.44	Watch
	2.79	1.49
	2.69	1.46	Watch
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.77	1.45	Watch
	2.7	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.14)	1.45 ↓ (1.6)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benjamin Bonzi
34.7%

Brandon Nakashima
65.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

57.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

59.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benjamin Bonzi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Benjamin Bonzi's form might have worsened.

Brandon Nakashima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Brandon Nakashima's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benjamin Bonzi than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Benjamin Bonzi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Brandon Nakashima, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	0%	72.7%

Benjamin Bonzi - Brandon Nakashima Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Bonzi will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Nakashima will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nakashima: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bonzi is ranked ATP: 64. Nakashima is ranked ATP: 41.

Bonzi is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Nakashima is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bonzi could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Nakashima will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Brandon Nakashima - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 57.22%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Benjamin Bonzi
ATP Marseille
11.02.25	Luca Van Assche - Benjamin Bonzi	2:1 ✺
11.02.25	Lucas Pouille - Benjamin Bonzi	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
06.02.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Arthur Bouquier	1:2 ✺
05.02.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	2:1 ✺
ATP Australian Open
17.01.25	Jiri Lehecka - Benjamin Bonzi	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 L?LWL
- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Delray Beach
14.02.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
13.02.25	Reilly Opelka - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
10.02.25	James Kent Trotter - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
ATP Dallas
05.02.25	Yoshihito Nishioka - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
ATP Australian Open
14.01.25	Ben Shelton - Brandon Nakashima	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWWLL

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