Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells (USA), hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 10 March 2025, Monday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Brandon Nakashima

	1	2
	1.77	2	Watch
	1.85	1.91	Watch
	1.82	2	Watch
	1.85	2.06
	1.78	2.01	Watch
	1.85	1.95	Watch
	1.78	2.04	Watch
	1.82	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (2.18)	2 ↑ (1.69)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
52.4%

Brandon Nakashima
47.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

56.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

57.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matteo Arnaldi's performance.

Brandon Nakashima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brandon Nakashima might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Arnaldi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brandon Nakashima could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 14 - 63.6%). Nakashima will win (votes: 8 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 43.5% – 83.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 35. Nakashima is ranked ATP: 33.

Both players are now playing unstable.

Arnaldi could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Arnaldi won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:5 (average 1.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.25	Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
06.03.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:1 ✺
ATP Acapulco
25.02.25	Alexander Zverev - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Delray Beach
15.02.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
14.02.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWLLW
- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.25	Rinky Hijikata - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
ATP Acapulco
28.02.25	Tomas Machac - Brandon Nakashima	2:1 ✺
27.02.25	Brandon Nakashima - David Goffin	2:0 ✺
26.02.25	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Brandon Nakashima	Rune H. retired ✺
25.02.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLW?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Delray Beach
14.02.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima	2:0
ATP Next Gen Finals
08.11.22	Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima	2:3

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