Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain) - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 22 April 2024, Monday

Referee: Moore S. (Usa)


	Bernabe Zapata Miralles		Camilo Ugo Carabelli

	1	2
			Watch
	1.87	1.87
	1.92	1.8	Watch
	1.99	1.85
	1.99	1.85
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.89	1.85	Watch
	1.88	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.72)	1.84 ↓ (2.02)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bernabe Zapata Miralles
48.9%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
51.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

46%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.8%

45.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bernabe Zapata Miralles has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bernabe Zapata Miralles's form might have worsened.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Camilo Ugo Carabelli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bernabe Zapata Miralles than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bernabe Zapata Miralles, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Camilo Ugo Carabelli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	0%	77.8%

Bernabe Zapata Miralles - Camilo Ugo Carabelli Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Zapata Miralles will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Ugo Carabelli will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ugo Carabelli: 50.6% – 100%.

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Preview

Zapata Miralles is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Ugo Carabelli is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Zapata Miralles could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Zapata Miralles won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bernabe Zapata Miralles
ATP Barcelona
13.04.24	Bernabe Zapata Miralles - Gianluca Mager	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.04.24	Bernabe Zapata Miralles - Jurij Rodionov	0:2 ✺
09.04.24	Daniel Rincon - Bernabe Zapata Miralles	0:2 ✺
07.04.24	Nick Hardt - Bernabe Zapata Miralles	2:1 ✺
06.04.24	Lorenzo Giustino - Bernabe Zapata Miralles	Giustino L. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLWL?
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Munich
16.04.24	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Daniel Elahi Galan	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.04.24	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Vitaliy Sachko	Canceled ✺
06.04.24	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	0:2 ✺
05.04.24	Orlando Luz - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
03.04.24	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Geoffrey Blancaneaux	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 L?LWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
16.03.17	Bernabe Zapata Miralles - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:1

Bernabe Zapata Miralles - Camilo Ugo Carabelli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide