Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Acapulco - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	Bernard Tomic		Nicolas Mejia

	1	2
			Watch
	1.65	2.1	Watch
	1.71	2.09	Watch
	1.67	2.1
	1.67	2.08	Watch
	1.68	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.46)	2.1 ↓ (2.62)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bernard Tomic
55.6%

Nicolas Mejia
44.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.2%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.8%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bernard Tomic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bernard Tomic's form might have worsened.

Nicolas Mejia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nicolas Mejia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bernard Tomic than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bernard Tomic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nicolas Mejia than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nicolas Mejia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	0%	90%

Bernard Tomic - Nicolas Mejia Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Tomic will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Mejia will win (votes: 9 - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mejia: 71.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nicolas Mejia will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tomic is ranked ATP: 187. Mejia is ranked ATP: 179.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Tomic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Tomic won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bernard Tomic
ATP Challenger
20.02.26	Borna Gojo - Bernard Tomic	2:1 ✺
18.02.26	Gijs Brouwer - Bernard Tomic	1:2 ✺
16.02.26	Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros - Bernard Tomic	0:2 ✺
ATP Dallas
08.02.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Bernard Tomic	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Krish Arora - Bernard Tomic	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWWLW
- Nicolas Mejia
ATP Delray Beach
14.02.26	Dalibor Svrcina - Nicolas Mejia	2:1 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
08.02.26	Reda Bennani - Nicolas Mejia	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Taha Baadi - Nicolas Mejia	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
22.01.26	Nicolas Mejia - Daniil Glinka	0:2 ✺
20.01.26	Nicolas Mejia - Zdenek Kolar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
14.08.25	Nicolas Mejia - Bernard Tomic	1:2
30.07.25	Bernard Tomic - Nicolas Mejia	2:0
18.02.25	Nicolas Mejia - Bernard Tomic	0:2
02.07.24	Bernard Tomic - Nicolas Mejia	2:1

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