Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 24 April 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Madrid 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Bu Yunchaokete		Jacob Fearnley

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	1.95	1.83	Watch
	1.99	1.83	Watch
	2.09	1.81
	2.01	1.78	Watch
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.98	1.83	Watch
	1.99	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.21)	1.83 ↑ (1.68)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bu Yunchaokete
47.9%

Jacob Fearnley
52.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.1%

56.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

58.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bu Yunchaokete has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Jacob Fearnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bu Yunchaokete than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bu Yunchaokete that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jacob Fearnley than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jacob Fearnley could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.6%	0%	29.4%

Bu Yunchaokete - Jacob Fearnley Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Yunchaokete will win (votes: 12 - 75%). Fearnley will win (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Yunchaokete: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Yunchaokete (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Fearnley (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Yunchaokete is ranked ATP: 72. Fearnley is ranked ATP: 68.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Fearnley could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Yunchaokete won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:4 (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bu Yunchaokete
ATP Munich
12.04.25	Bu Yunchaokete - Borna Gojo	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.25	Bu Yunchaokete - Lorenzo Musetti	1:2 ✺
06.04.25	Albert Ramos-Vinolas - Bu Yunchaokete	0:2 ✺
05.04.25	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Bu Yunchaokete	0:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
01.04.25	Bu Yunchaokete - Roberto Bautista-Agut	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 ?LWWL
- Jacob Fearnley
ATP Madrid
22.04.25	Jacob Fearnley - Hugo Dellien	2:0 ✺
21.04.25	Jacob Fearnley - Pavel Kotov	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
17.04.25	Jacob Fearnley - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
14.04.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Jacob Fearnley	0:2 ✺
13.04.25	Daniel Elahi Galan - Jacob Fearnley	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
10.08.24	Jacob Fearnley - Bu Yunchaokete	2:1
11.06.24	Bu Yunchaokete - Jacob Fearnley	0:2

Bu Yunchaokete - Jacob Fearnley