Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 21 April 2025, Monday


	Jacob Fearnley		Pavel Kotov

	1	2
			Watch
	1.78	1.98
	1.95	1.77	Watch
	1.99	1.85
	1.9	1.87	Watch
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.96	1.77	Watch
	1.95	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.69)	1.87 ↓ (2.07)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jacob Fearnley
49.8%

Pavel Kotov
50.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jacob Fearnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jacob Fearnley's form might have worsened.

Pavel Kotov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pavel Kotov's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jacob Fearnley than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pavel Kotov than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Jacob Fearnley - Pavel Kotov Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Fearnley will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Kotov will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fearnley (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Fearnley is ranked ATP: 74. Kotov is ranked ATP: 121.

One and the other player get a very uncertain game.

Fearnley could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Pavel Kotov - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 45.01%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jacob Fearnley
ATP Barcelona
17.04.25	Jacob Fearnley - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
14.04.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Jacob Fearnley	0:2 ✺
13.04.25	Daniel Elahi Galan - Jacob Fearnley	2:0 ✺
12.04.25	Leo Borg - Jacob Fearnley	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
22.03.25	Alexander Zverev - Jacob Fearnley	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWLWL
- Pavel Kotov
ATP Challenger
12.04.25	Pavel Kotov - Norbert Gombos	1:2 ✺
09.04.25	Pavel Kotov - Alejandro Moro Canas	2:1 ✺
08.04.25	Pavel Kotov - Benjamin Hassan	2:0 ✺
ATP Marrakech
01.04.25	Pavel Kotov - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
18.03.25	Pavel Kotov - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWWLL

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