Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Athens 2, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 November 2025, Tuesday


	Carlo Alberto Caniato		James Story

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.51	2.39	Watch
	1.54	2.52
	1.40	2.73	Watch
	1.54	2.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.67)	2.52 ↑ (2.1)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlo Alberto Caniato
62.9%

James Story
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.6%

43.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlo Alberto Caniato has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carlo Alberto Caniato's performance.

James Story has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and James Story might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlo Alberto Caniato than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carlo Alberto Caniato that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for James Story than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that James Story could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	0%	38.5%

Carlo Alberto Caniato - James Story Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Caniato will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Story will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Caniato: 35% – 88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Carlo Alberto Caniato will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Caniato is ranked ATP: 392. Story is ranked ATP: 463.

Caniato is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Story's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Caniato may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlo Alberto Caniato
ITF Tournaments
02.11.25	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Carlo Alberto Caniato	0:2 ✺
01.11.25	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Gastao Elias	2:0 ✺
31.10.25	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Nick Hardt	2:0 ✺
29.10.25	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Peter Sychev	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.10.25	Nerman Fatic - Carlo Alberto Caniato	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WWWWL
- James Story
ITF Tournaments
20.11.25	James Story - Luca Preda	1:2 ✺
30.10.25	James Story - Marat Sharipov	0:2 ✺
28.10.25	James Story - Luke Hooper	2:0 ✺
25.10.25	James Story - Anton Matusevich	2:1 ✺
24.10.25	James Story - Jelle Sels	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWWW

Carlo Alberto Caniato - James Story: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide