Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Cattolica, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 20 June 2025, Friday


	Carlo Alberto Caniato		Luca Castagnola

	1	2
			Watch
	1.65	2.05
			Watch
	1.67	2.16
			Watch
	1.67	2.1
	1.69	2.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.83)	2.1 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlo Alberto Caniato
55.7%

Luca Castagnola
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlo Alberto Caniato has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carlo Alberto Caniato's performance.

Luca Castagnola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luca Castagnola might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlo Alberto Caniato than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

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Preview

Caniato is ranked ATP: 803. Castagnola is ranked ATP: 601.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Castagnola may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Caniato won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Carlo Alberto Caniato - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Luca Castagnola - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlo Alberto Caniato
ITF Tournaments
19.06.25	Carlos Lopez Montagud - Carlo Alberto Caniato	0:2 ✺
16.06.25	Stefano DAgostino - Carlo Alberto Caniato	0:2 ✺
05.06.25	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Sebastian Gima	0:2 ✺
03.06.25	Mika Petkovic - Carlo Alberto Caniato	1:2 ✺
30.05.25	Sebastian Dominko - Carlo Alberto Caniato	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLWL
- Luca Castagnola
ITF Tournaments
19.06.25	Leonardo Primucci - Luca Castagnola	0:2 ✺
17.06.25	Luca Castagnola - Lilian Marmousez	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.06.25	Luca Castagnola - Marco Cecchinato	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
05.06.25	Luca Castagnola - Valentin Basel	0:2 ✺
03.06.25	Luca Castagnola - Dragos Nicolae Cazacu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
16.02.24	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Luca Castagnola	0:2
10.08.23	Luca Castagnola - Carlo Alberto Caniato	2:0

Carlo Alberto Caniato - Luca Castagnola: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide