Match Info

Date: 19 February 2020, Wednesday


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Federico Coria

	1	2
	2	1.72	Watch
	1.95	1.83
	2.05	1.75
	1.94	1.77
	2.03	1.88
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	1.86	1.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.58)	1.78 ↑ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
47.3%

Federico Coria
52.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

63.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

63.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carlos Alcaraz Garfia's performance.

Federico Coria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Federico Coria might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carlos Alcaraz Garfia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Federico Coria than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Federico Coria could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Federico Coria Predictions

Users Predictions: 144 users predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 120 - 83.3%). Coria will win (votes: 24 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alcaraz Garfia: 77.2% – 89.4%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Rio de Janeiro
17.02.20	Albert Ramos-Vinolas - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
02.02.20	Zsombor Piros - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:1 ✺
01.02.20	Alexandar Lazarov - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
31.01.20	Timofey Skatov - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
30.01.20	Tristan Meraut - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WLWWW
- Federico Coria
ATP Rio de Janeiro
17.02.20	Corentin Moutet - Federico Coria	1:2 ✺
16.02.20	Federico Coria - Jozef Kovalik	2:0 ✺
15.02.20	Federico Coria - Carlos Taberner	2:0 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
08.02.20	Federico Coria - Joao Domingues	0:2 ✺
ATP Cordoba
04.02.20	Federico Coria - Andrej Martin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWLL

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